Japan’s travel sector is entering a strong holiday-season rebound as 2025 comes to an end. An estimated 1 million Japanese travelers are expected to go overseas for the year-end and New Year holidays, marking a 32 percent increase from last year and reaching nearly 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels. This renewed outbound momentum is being driven largely by higher-income travelers who are prioritizing long-haul, experience-focused trips, signaling a clear shift in winter travel behavior.

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Record Outbound Holiday Travel Nears Pre-Pandemic Highs

Leading Japanese travel agency JTB forecasts ~1 million outbound trips by Japanese residents over the 2025/26 winter holiday period – a jump of about one-third from the previous year. Such growth brings Japan’s outbound holiday travel tantalizingly close to pre-2020 volumes.

Total spending on overseas travel is expected to soar as well, climbing by approximately 42.9% year-on-year to ¥275.8 billion for this season. The average Japanese holidaymaker is set to spend around ¥275,000 on their international trip, nearly 9% more than last year, as many travelers are booking longer vacations of 4–6 nights instead of quick getaways. This combination of more travelers and higher per-trip expenditures underscores a robust recovery in Japan’s outbound tourism market.

Contributing to the surge is a healthier economic backdrop for wealthy individuals. A recent stock market rally has boosted asset values for affluent Japanese, empowering them to travel more and spend more on leisure.

Despite a weaker yen and global inflation, pent-up demand and rising wealth among some segments have translated into a holiday travel boom. Industry observers note that 2025’s year-end season could become one of the strongest in recent memory for Japanese outbound tourism, approaching the scale of peak years before COVID-19.

Affluent Travelers Fuel Luxury & Long-Haul Vacations

A striking feature of this rebound is where Japanese tourists are choosing to go. Wealthy travelers are increasingly opting for long-haul, luxury destinations in their winter holiday plans.

Europe and the United States have emerged as particularly popular choices, as high-end tourists seek out premium shopping, dining, and cultural experiences abroad. Many of these travelers are booking upscale tours and first- or business-class flights to far-flung locales, making the long-haul segment a key driver of the outbound growth.

Specific destinations illustrate this trend. Hawaii continues to top the list of international picks, drawing about 10.6% of Japan’s outbound holiday travelers, followed closely by Europe at 10.5%. Mainland U.S. cities (beyond Hawaii) are also in high demand, as are destinations in Australia and New Zealand (about 8.9% share). This tilt toward long-haul vacations marks a shift from prior years when short-haul Asian destinations dominated the winter travel calendar.

At the same time, the market shows a clear polarization in travel preferences. Even as affluent jet-setters indulge in expensive trips to Europe or North America, another sizable segment of Japanese travelers is opting for budget-friendly, short-duration holidays closer to home.

Nearby Asian destinations (like South Korea or Taiwan) remain popular for cost-conscious tourists, though some data indicate a slight softening in demand for the shortest-haul trips.

This divergence means travel agencies are catering to two extremes – luxury long-haul packages for those willing to splurge, and discounted deals or group tours for those watching their budgets. The “haves and have-nots” dynamic in travel spending has become more pronounced, with some travelers hunting for coupons and bargains, while others splurge on once-in-a-lifetime experiences.

Ripple Effects on Airlines and Global Destinations

This spike in Japanese outbound travel is reverberating across the global travel industry. Airlines and destination markets are taking notice, as a flood of Japanese tourists can bring both opportunities and logistical pressures during the peak holiday weeks.

Flights on transpacific and Asia-Europe routes are expected to be busier than usual, prompting carriers to adjust capacity and schedules. In fact, some international airlines have already ramped up their Japan route services to accommodate growing demand.

British Airways, for example, increased its Tokyo–London flights to twice daily in anticipation of a 16% rise in Japanese tourists visiting the UK in 2025 compared to 2024. Japanese carriers ANA and JAL are likewise boosting long-haul services, deploying larger aircraft and adding routes to Europe and North America to ferry the growing numbers of holidaymakers abroad.

Popular overseas destinations frequented by Japanese travelers are preparing for an influx. Hotels, resorts, and luxury retailers in cities like Honolulu, Paris, New York, and Sydney can expect a notable uptick in Japanese clientele this winter. Tourism businesses may feel a “peak-season pressure” as additional demand from Japan adds to the usual year-end holiday crowding.

Analysts predict higher occupancy rates at hotels known to cater to Japanese tour groups, potentially driving up room rates in those locales. Likewise, tour operators in Europe and the U.S. might see a boost in bookings, from guided tours in English and Japanese to increased foot traffic at major attractions beloved by Japanese tourists.

Economically, the outbound surge from Japan is a welcome boon to destination markets recovering from the pandemic slump. The 42.9% jump in Japan’s outbound travel spending (to roughly ¥275.8 billion) represents a significant injection of tourism dollars into overseas economies this season.

Luxury travel spending, in particular, tends to have high spill-over effects – benefiting airlines, high-end hotels, Michelin-starred restaurants, and shopping districts abroad.

Travel experts note that a strong Japanese presence can influence service offerings at destinations: for instance, more Japanese-language signage, menus, or staff might be deployed in expectation of the holiday rush. Overall, the global tourism sector is bracing for a busy winter thanks in part to Japan’s travel-happy populace.

Travel Tips for Winter 2025–2026 Travelers

For those planning international travel in the upcoming winter season, it’s important to be mindful of this surge in demand from Japan. Popular destinations that draw large numbers of Japanese tourists (such as Hawaii, major European cities, and U.S. West Coast hubs) are likely to be busier and more booked up than usual. If your travels coincide with the New Year period, consider the following tips to navigate the peak season:

  • Book flights and hotels early: With heavier demand on flights and accommodations from Japanese holidaymakers, seats and rooms on popular routes and cities may fill up fast. Secure your reservations well in advance to ensure availability and better prices.
  • Anticipate crowding at attractions: Expect larger tour groups and longer queues at famous sights favored by Japanese tourists (e.g. Honolulu beaches, European landmarks, theme parks). Plan for extra time or look into skip-the-line passes and reservations where possible.
  • Travel during off-peak days: If your schedule allows, flying a few days before or after the main holiday weeks can help you avoid the absolute peak crowds. Japanese outbound travel typically surges around late December and early January, so adjusting your dates might provide a calmer experience.
  • Leverage local expertise: Hotels and tourism boards in heavily visited destinations often provide services in Japanese – which can also be useful for other travelers. Don’t hesitate to use concierge services or multilingual tour guides; the increased Japanese patronage means these services are well-prepared for international guests.

The holiday-season travel boom from Japan is a sign of the world returning to a vibrant era of international tourism; one where long-haul flights are full again and global destinations welcome back Japanese visitors en masse.

FAQ

Q1. How many Japanese travelers are expected to go overseas for winter 2025–26?
About one million Japanese residents are forecast to travel abroad over the year-end and New Year holidays, an increase of roughly 32 percent from last year.

Q2. How close is Japan’s outbound holiday travel to pre-pandemic levels?
Outbound volume is projected to reach nearly 90 percent of pre-2020 levels, showing a strong and steady recovery.

Q3. How much are Japanese travelers spending on their year-end trips?
Average spending is around ¥275,000 per trip, up nearly 9 percent year over year. Total outbound spend is expected to reach approximately ¥275.8 billion.

Q4. What types of destinations are Japanese travelers choosing in 2025–26?
Many affluent travelers are opting for long haul destinations such as Europe, the United States, Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand. Budget friendly Asian destinations remain popular as well.

Q5. Why are wealthier Japanese driving this travel rebound?
A strong stock market and asset gains have increased disposable income among affluent households, encouraging investment in premium, experience focused holidays despite the weaker yen.

Q6. Is there still demand for short haul, budget trips?
Yes. Shorter, inexpensive trips within Asia are still widely chosen, though they show slight softening compared with the sharp rise in long haul bookings.

Q7. How are airlines responding to Japan’s outbound surge?
Airlines are adding capacity, deploying larger aircraft, and increasing frequencies on Japan–Europe and transpacific routes. Some carriers have reinstated or expanded services specifically to meet Japanese demand.

Q8. Which destinations are likely to feel the biggest impact?
Hawaii, major U.S. cities, European capitals, and hubs in Australia and New Zealand will likely see more Japanese visitors, higher hotel occupancy, and stronger tour and retail activity.

Q9. What does this mean for other international travelers visiting the same places?
Expect busier airports, fuller flights, higher hotel rates, and increased crowding at popular attractions, especially around the New Year surge.

Q10. How can travelers plan around Japan’s outbound holiday rush?
Book flights and hotels well in advance, avoid peak departure dates if possible, consider alternative cities or offbeat attractions, and use reservations or skip the line options in high demand destinations.