Holiday travel in the United States is set to smash records again as AAA forecasts that 122.4 million Americans will journey 50 miles or more from home over the 13-day year-end period beginning today, December 20, and running through January 1.

With nearly 9 in 10 travelers opting to drive and a record number boarding domestic flights, transportation networks on the ground and in the air are bracing for some of the heaviest demand seen since AAA began tracking year-end travel volumes in 2000.

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Record-Breaking Forecast to Close Out 2025

AAA’s latest outlook puts total year-end holiday travelers at 122.4 million, a 2.2 percent increase over last year’s record of about 119.7 million. That translates into roughly 2.7 million additional people on the move compared with the 2024 period, underscoring how robust demand for leisure and family travel remains heading into 2026.

The holiday travel window defined by AAA runs from today, Saturday, December 20, through Thursday, January 1. Over that span, Americans will be on the roads, in the skies, and aboard trains, buses, and cruise ships as they visit family, take long-postponed vacations, or squeeze in one last getaway before the new year. AAA’s travel volume estimates are developed in partnership with S&P Global Market Intelligence and draw on a wide range of economic and travel data.

“People are eager to travel this holiday season,” said Debbie Haas, vice president of travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group, in a recent statement. She noted that the combination of strong consumer confidence and moderating inflation is encouraging Americans to prioritize travel even amid lingering concerns about delays, weather disruptions, and crowds.

The new forecast builds on a broader trend: travel for major U.S. holidays has repeatedly surpassed pre-pandemic baselines. AAA’s projections for Memorial Day and Thanksgiving in both 2024 and 2025 showed strong year-over-year increases, with Thanksgiving 2025 alone expected to draw more than 81 million travelers. That momentum appears to be carrying directly into the year-end period.

Highway Traffic Dominates as Gas Prices Ease

Road trips will once again be the dominant mode of holiday travel. AAA expects 109.5 million people to travel by car between today and January 1, representing roughly 89 percent of all holiday travelers. The number of road trippers is up about 2 percent from last year and approaches, and in some regions exceeds, the pre-pandemic highs recorded in 2019.

Cheaper fuel is a major factor behind the surge in driving. For the first time in four years, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline dipped below 3 dollars this month and could continue to soften through the end of the year. During the 2024 year-end holiday period, the national average was about 3.04 dollars a gallon. This season’s lower prices are providing welcome relief to families covering long distances by car.

Regional AAA clubs from Florida to the Carolinas, the Midwest, and the Mountain West are all reporting record or near-record numbers of motorists. North Carolina, for instance, expects nearly 3.7 million residents to take trips of 50 miles or more. In Tennessee and Georgia, local forecasts point to their highest ever year-end volumes, mirroring the national pattern of people opting for drivable destinations over more complicated itineraries.

Congestion will be felt most acutely in metropolitan areas and along key interstate corridors leading into and out of major cities. Transportation analytics firms that work with AAA anticipate the worst bottlenecks on the weekends bracketing Christmas and New Year’s, particularly during late afternoon and early evening as commuters and long-distance travelers share the same lanes.

Air Travel to Hit New Holiday Highs

While most Americans will drive, air travel is also set to reach new records this holiday season. AAA projects 8.03 million domestic air travelers during the December 20 to January 1 period, up roughly 2.3 percent from last year and the first time AAA’s year-end forecast has topped 8 million flyers.

Airlines and airports have been ramping up operations to cope with the surge. Globally, travel data providers expect more than 300 million passengers to fly between mid-December and early January, with the United States accounting for the largest share. U.S. airports such as Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Chicago O’Hare, and Los Angeles are all preparing for some of their busiest days of the year.

Average domestic airfare during the peak days of the Christmas and New Year’s window is running higher than in 2024, reflecting strong demand and limited spare capacity. Some travel data indicate that the typical roundtrip holiday ticket is approaching 900 dollars on popular routes, although travelers who opted to fly on Christmas Day or early in the new year have been able to find more moderate fares.

Heightened volumes also mean a greater risk of disruptions. Winter storms, low visibility, or high winds in key hubs can have cascading effects on the national network, stranding travelers far from home. Airlines have been encouraging customers to use mobile apps and text alerts to stay on top of schedule changes, and many have relaxed change-fee policies on certain days to allow more flexibility in the face of adverse weather.

Transit, Rail, and Cruises See Post-Pandemic Resurgence

Beyond highways and runways, travel by other modes is forecast to post some of the most striking percentage gains this year. AAA expects about 4.9 million people to travel by bus, train, or cruise ship during the 13-day holiday period, representing a 9 percent year-over-year increase. This category is now roughly 25 percent higher than in 2019 as travelers rediscover alternatives to driving and flying.

Passenger rail services and regional bus operators are seeing strong bookings on routes linking major coastal cities and smaller regional hubs. For many urban residents, these options can be more convenient and less stressful than wrangling with airport security lines or holiday highway backups. They also appeal to travelers concerned about the environmental impact of their trips.

The cruise industry, which experienced an extended slump earlier in the decade, has rebounded quickly over the past two years. AAA and cruise line executives report record-setting demand for Caribbean sailings, holiday river cruises, and warm-weather itineraries departing from ports in Florida, Texas, Louisiana, and California. Many ships heading out over Christmas and New Year’s have been sold out for months.

This renewed interest in varied modes of travel reflects a broader emphasis on experiences, comfort, and convenience, particularly among multigenerational families traveling together. It also diversifies the pressure on infrastructure by spreading travelers across different systems instead of concentrating them solely on roads and at airports.

Economic Tailwinds and Shifting Traveler Behavior

The record travel forecast is underpinned by several economic trends that have been building through 2024 and 2025. The labor market remains relatively strong, with solid employment levels and wage growth that has increasingly caught up with inflation. As price pressures have eased compared with earlier spikes, households have regained some purchasing power, enabling them to prioritize discretionary spending on travel.

AAA’s analysts, working with S&P Global Market Intelligence, point to continued growth in consumer spending and stable gross domestic product as key drivers of the holiday travel surge. Even as some Americans feel stretched by higher housing and everyday costs, surveys consistently show that many are cutting back in other areas before canceling major trips or family gatherings.

Another factor is the lingering impact of the pandemic era on attitudes toward time and experiences. After years of restrictions and uncertainty, travelers have embraced the idea of “making up for lost time,” scheduling more frequent trips and placing a premium on connecting with loved ones. That sentiment remains a strong motivator, particularly around year-end holidays that carry significant emotional weight.

At the same time, traveler behavior has evolved. More people are willing to adjust dates, mix remote work with vacation days, or use alternative airports and off-peak departure times to mitigate costs and avoid the worst of the crowds. AAA notes that Christmas falling midweek this year has given some travelers flexibility to structure longer stays or stagger their outbound and return journeys.

Infrastructure Strain and Risk of Delays Nationwide

Transportation agencies and operators across the country are signaling that the convergence of record volumes, winter weather, and aging infrastructure could produce significant delays and localized strain over the next two weeks. Highways in fast-growing metro regions already operate near capacity on normal weekdays; heavy holiday demand can quickly tip them into gridlock when even minor incidents occur.

State transportation departments are deploying additional patrols, ramp meters, and incident response teams to clear crashes and disabled vehicles more quickly. That preparation is informed in part by last year’s experience, when AAA responded to more than 860,000 emergency roadside calls during the 2024 year-end holiday period alone. Dead batteries, flat tires, lockouts, and out-of-fuel situations were among the most common reasons for assistance.

At airports, the Transportation Security Administration has been warning travelers to allow extra time for screening, particularly on peak departure days just before Christmas and New Year’s. Security wait times can swell rapidly when early-morning banks of flights depart in quick succession. Airport authorities are adding temporary staff, expanding overflow parking, and opening auxiliary security lanes where space allows.

Weather remains the biggest wildcard. A single strong winter storm sweeping across the Midwest or Northeast can disrupt both air and ground transportation for days, as airlines reposition aircraft and crews and road crews struggle to keep interstates open. Travelers with tight connections, same-day weddings, or cruise departures are especially vulnerable and are being urged by travel advisors to build in buffers or purchase insurance that covers weather-related delays.

Safety, Timing, and Planning: AAA’s Advice to Travelers

Given the combination of volume and seasonal hazards, AAA and highway safety advocates are emphasizing preparation and caution. December is National Impaired Driving Prevention Month, and law enforcement agencies nationwide are increasing patrols to combat drunk and drug-impaired driving. Authorities are urging travelers to designate sober drivers, use rideshare services when celebrating, and avoid getting behind the wheel when drowsy.

AAA recommends that drivers have their vehicles professionally inspected before embarking on long trips, with particular attention to tires, brakes, batteries, and fluid levels. Simple checks can prevent breakdowns that not only spoil vacations but also exacerbate congestion and raise crash risks for others. Motorists are also reminded to pack emergency kits, including jumper cables, blankets, water, snacks, and phone chargers, especially in colder regions.

Timing remains one of the most effective tools for avoiding delays. Traffic data compiled for previous holidays show that midmorning and late evening generally offer smoother driving than the midafternoon peak, when local commuters, shoppers, and long-distance travelers share the same roads. On the air side, early-morning departures are less likely to suffer knock-on delays from problems earlier in the day.

Travel experts also encourage flexibility. That may mean choosing an alternate airport, flying on the holiday itself, taking a train instead of driving in storm-prone areas, or even adjusting destinations to stay closer to home. With demand as strong as it is this year, last-minute bargains are rare, but creative itineraries and a willingness to compromise on exact timing can still improve the overall travel experience.

FAQ

Q1: How many Americans does AAA expect to travel over this year-end holiday period?
AAA projects that 122.4 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home between December 20 and January 1, the highest year-end holiday volume on record.

Q2: What share of holiday travelers will be driving?
About 89 percent of holiday travelers, or roughly 109.5 million people, are expected to travel by car, making road trips the dominant mode of transportation this season.

Q3: Why is holiday travel demand so high this year?
Stronger household finances, moderating inflation, a robust job market, and a continued desire to reconnect with family and friends after earlier pandemic disruptions are all contributing to the surge in travel.

Q4: How are gas prices affecting road-trip plans?
Gas prices have fallen below 3 dollars a gallon nationally for the first time in four years, giving drivers a financial incentive to choose road trips and helping offset other rising travel costs.

Q5: What is expected for air travel during the holidays?
AAA forecasts about 8.03 million domestic air travelers over the 13-day period, a record for year-end holidays, with particularly busy days just before Christmas and around New Year’s.

Q6: Are other modes of travel like trains, buses, and cruises also seeing growth?
Yes. AAA expects around 4.9 million people to travel by bus, train, or cruise, a 9 percent increase from last year and roughly a quarter higher than before the pandemic.

Q7: When are the worst times to drive to avoid traffic?
Afternoon and early evening hours on the weekends around Christmas and New Year’s are typically the most congested. Travelers are advised to leave early in the morning or later in the evening to reduce time spent in traffic.

Q8: What are the main safety concerns on the roads this season?
Impaired and drowsy driving, speeding, and unprepared vehicles are top concerns. Authorities emphasize sober driving, adequate rest, vehicle maintenance, and emergency kits, especially in regions affected by winter weather.

Q9: How likely are flight delays and cancellations during this period?
With record passenger volumes and the risk of winter storms, delays and cancellations are a real possibility, particularly at major hubs. Travelers are urged to monitor their flights closely, allow extra connection time, and consider travel insurance.

Q10: What practical steps can travelers take to minimize disruptions?
Experts recommend booking as early as possible, traveling on off-peak days or times, arriving at airports well ahead of departure, performing pre-trip vehicle checks, and building flexibility into itineraries to accommodate unexpected weather or operational issues.