Major Chinese and international airlines are waiving change fees and expanding refund options for travelers booked on China Japan routes, after Beijing issued a fresh advisory urging Chinese citizens to avoid nonessential travel to Japan during the upcoming Spring Festival Golden Week. The moves are the latest sign of how diplomatic tensions and safety concerns are reshaping one of Asia’s busiest air corridors on the eve of the 2026 Lunar New Year travel rush.

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New China Travel Advisory Targets Japan Ahead of Holiday Rush

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, together with the Chinese embassy and consulates in Japan, issued a notice this week advising citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan in the near term as the Spring Festival approaches. The guidance comes just days before the start of the official nine day holiday period in mid February, which typically triggers one of the world’s largest seasonal movements of people.

In the latest notice, Chinese authorities cited a deterioration in public security in Japan, a reported rise in criminal cases involving Chinese nationals, and a series of earthquakes in parts of the country over recent weeks. The advisory referenced Japanese government warnings about the risk of further seismic activity, and urged Chinese citizens already in Japan to stay alert to safety updates, follow local instructions and strengthen self protection measures.

Officials also reminded travelers that in an emergency they should contact local police promptly and seek assistance from Chinese diplomatic missions. While the advisory stops short of an outright ban, the strong wording, timed so close to the peak of Lunar New Year travel, has had an immediate chilling effect on demand for Japan bound trips from mainland China.

Air China, China Eastern and China Southern Lead Fee Waiver Wave

Within hours of the latest advisory, China’s three largest state owned carriers moved in lockstep to expand existing fee waivers and refund policies for Japan related flights. Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines announced that passengers holding tickets issued before January 26 for Japan bound, outbound from Japan, or transit flights between March 29 and October 24, 2026, would be eligible for free changes or full refunds.

The new measures extend an earlier special policy that had been due to expire on March 28, which covered the 2025 to 2026 winter spring flight season. By lengthening the window across the entire 2026 summer autumn schedule, the airlines are effectively signaling that uncertainty around China Japan travel is expected to persist well beyond the Spring Festival peak.

The trio of carriers have been at the forefront of fare flexibility since Beijing first escalated safety warnings about travel to Japan late last year. Previous rounds of waivers covered tickets through December 31 and then March 28, granting fee free refunds and itinerary changes as relations between the two neighbors soured and demand weakened. The latest expansion underscores how quickly the situation has deteriorated as the Lunar New Year approaches.

More Chinese Carriers and International Airlines Follow Suit

The policies of China’s big three have set the tone for a broader industry response. Other Chinese airlines, including Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Shandong Airlines, Spring Airlines and Sichuan Airlines, have already been offering similar flexibility for many Japan routes since late 2025 and are expected to align their rules again in the wake of the new advisory.

While detailed rulebooks vary by carrier, most waive change fees for at least one rebooking on affected routes, and allow refunds without penalty for tickets issued before the cut off date. In many cases, fare differences still apply if passengers choose more expensive dates or cabins, but the removal of administration charges has proven critical for travelers facing last minute decisions about whether to cancel or reroute their holidays.

Some foreign airlines serving the China Japan market are also quietly loosening their policies to remain competitive and to manage rapidly shifting demand. Industry sources in Beijing and Shanghai say several joint venture and codeshare partners of Chinese carriers are honoring similar waivers for tickets sold in China, though formal announcements have been more muted. Travel agents report that in practice, passengers with Japan bound itineraries originating in mainland China are increasingly able to alter plans with minimal extra cost, regardless of whether they fly on Chinese or Japanese metal.

Wave of Cancellations Hits China Japan Routes

Flight data compiled by Chinese aviation analytics firms show that the advisory and fee waivers are landing against a backdrop of already heavy capacity cuts on China Japan routes. As of mid January, more than 2,300 flights between the two countries scheduled for the Spring Festival transport period had been canceled, representing more than one third of planned services during the 40 day travel window that runs from early February to mid March.

By late January, at least 49 individual routes linking Chinese cities to Japanese destinations had suspended all February operations, according to figures shared with domestic media. The Beijing Daxing Kansai route recorded one of the highest cancellation counts, with more than one hundred flights removed from schedules. Other trunk routes from Shanghai Pudong and Guangzhou to Tokyo and Osaka have also seen deep cuts as bookings slumped.

The weakening trend predates the most recent warning. In December, over 40 percent of flights from mainland China to Japan were scrapped, with more than 1,900 cancellations reported during that month alone. Japan’s national tourism agency has since reported a sharp year on year drop in mainland visitor numbers in December 2025, reflecting a combination of diplomatic tension, safety concerns and traveler unease.

Chinese Travelers Pivot to Thailand, South Korea and Visa Free Destinations

As Japan’s appeal dims, Chinese travelers are rapidly pivoting to alternative destinations for the Spring Festival break. Online travel platforms in China report that Thailand has reclaimed the top spot as the most popular overseas destination for the holiday period, driven by a mix of visa free entry, competitive airfares and aggressive promotions by Thai tourism authorities.

South Korea has also emerged as a major beneficiary of Japan’s downturn, with some analysts saying it is poised to overtake Japan as the leading Northeast Asian destination for Chinese tourists during this year’s Lunar New Year window. Recent easing of entry procedures for Chinese visitors and a robust schedule of flights between Chinese cities and Seoul, Busan and Jeju are helping to support the shift.

Beyond regional favorites, travelers are also fanning out to a cluster of visa free or visa light destinations spanning Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Europe. Data from Chinese booking sites show surging interest in countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as in longer haul options including Turkey and certain Gulf states that have rolled out favorable entry schemes for Chinese passport holders.

Within Greater China, Hong Kong and Macao remain important draws for mainland travelers, bolstered by high frequency air and rail links and relaxed cross border controls. Japan, once a fixture near the top of Spring Festival wish lists, has dropped out of many platforms’ top ten rankings for hotel and package tour bookings heading into the 2026 holiday.

Economic Stakes for Japan’s Tourism Recovery

The sudden cooling of Chinese demand is a blow to Japan’s tourism recovery, which has relied heavily on high spending visitors from the mainland in recent years. Before the pandemic, Chinese tourists were the largest single source market for Japan, both in terms of arrivals and total spending, supporting a wide ecosystem of airlines, hotels, retailers and attractions from Hokkaido to Okinawa.

Although inbound tourism to Japan has rebounded since borders reopened, the latest safety warnings and air service disruptions risk reversing those gains in the crucial Chinese segment. Japanese airports and regional tourism boards have spent months courting Chinese carriers and tour operators to rebuild capacity, only to see flights pulled back and group tours postponed as the political climate has worsened.

Local businesses in popular districts of Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka that cater specifically to Chinese visitors, from duty free shops to Mandarin speaking guides, are bracing for a quieter Lunar New Year than initially forecast. Some have begun pivoting marketing to Southeast Asian and domestic tourists, but industry groups say the spending power and travel patterns of Chinese groups are difficult to replace in the short term.

Travelers Caught Between Safety Warnings and Holiday Plans

For individual travelers, the flurry of advisories and airline policy changes has created a confusing and emotional lead up to the holidays. Many Chinese families book Japan ski trips, theme park visits and shopping breaks months in advance of Spring Festival, lured by short flight times, familiar food and a wide range of itineraries. As warnings have mounted, social media in China has filled with accounts of travelers agonizing over whether to cancel or push ahead.

The expansion of fee waivers has eased some of the financial burden of walking away from prepaid trips. Passengers who purchased tickets before the cutoff can now often reclaim the full cost of their flights or shift journeys to alternative destinations later in the year, without incurring hefty penalties. For those who booked hotels and tours through major Chinese platforms, many providers are also allowing partial refunds or credits, citing the travel advisory as force majeure.

Still, not all costs are recoverable. Independent travelers who booked nonrefundable accommodation directly with Japanese properties or purchased attraction tickets in advance may face losses, and some budget carriers on secondary routes are applying stricter rules than the flagship airlines. For travelers who choose to continue with their plans, the advisory has prompted extra planning, including registering contact details with Chinese consular services and reviewing personal safety and earthquake preparedness guidance.

Looking beyond the immediate holiday period, the extension of fee waivers through October 24 suggests airlines are preparing for a protracted period of uncertainty on China Japan routes. Aviation analysts note that carriers generally prefer to maintain schedule flexibility through temporary waivers rather than make sweeping long term cuts, allowing them to respond quickly if the political climate improves or demand recovers.

For now, however, capacity additions that had been planned for the 2026 summer season are being reassessed. Some Chinese airlines are redeploying aircraft to higher growth markets, particularly Southeast Asia, where strong outbound demand and friendlier diplomatic ties are supporting new routes and frequencies. Others are focusing more on domestic and regional leisure routes that are less exposed to geopolitical swings.

In Japan, airport operators and tourism authorities will be watching the post holiday data closely to gauge how deep and lasting the falloff in Chinese visitors may be. Much will depend on whether Beijing’s travel warning is relaxed or hardened in the coming months, and whether any new security incidents or natural disasters affect public perceptions. Until then, the combination of government caution and airline flexibility is likely to keep travelers wary, and the once bustling skies between China and Japan quieter than usual for at least one more travel season.