For years, the United States has relied on a steady influx of international visitors to power its aviation sector, gateway cities, and world-famous attractions. Yet a growing wave of political tension, safety concerns, and border headaches is reshaping that narrative. Canada has become the latest major ally to sharpen its language around travel to the U.S., joining countries such as Mexico, the United Kingdom, Iceland, France, and Switzerland in issuing unusually blunt cautions. At the same time, new data show that international air travel involving the U.S. slipped last year, with foreign arrivals and some long-haul markets posting declines of around eight percent or more. Together, these trends are fueling a perception that U.S. travel has become more stressful, more politicized, and less welcoming than key competitors, with real implications for travelers planning trips in 2026 and beyond.
A New Tone From Allies: Canada’s Warning and a Chorus of Concern
Canada’s relationship with the United States is one of the closest and most deeply integrated in the world. Tens of millions of Canadians cross the border each year for shopping, vacations, and business. That made it all the more striking when Ottawa updated its official travel advice to warn LGBTQ and gender-diverse Canadians about risks they may face in certain U.S. states, explicitly citing newly enacted laws and policies that could affect 2SLGBTQI+ travelers. The advisory urges Canadians to review state-level rules and to exercise heightened caution, a level of specificity rarely applied to the country’s largest neighbor and top leisure destination.
The move did not come in isolation. Advocacy groups in North America and Europe have flagged what they describe as an increasingly hostile climate for LGBTQ people and migrants in parts of the United States, highlighting restrictions on gender-affirming care, curbs on drag performances, and expanded powers for local authorities and border officials. While Canada’s federal government framed its step as a matter of duty of care to citizens rather than a political rebuke, it nonetheless signaled that the U.S. can no longer assume that its social and legal landscape is viewed as uniformly safe by traditional partners.
Other governments have been just as candid, if sometimes less formal. Diplomats and tourism officials in Western Europe and Oceania have publicly acknowledged rising traveler anxiety about U.S. politics and border enforcement. Industry surveys show that prospective visitors from countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Australia increasingly cite safety and political climate as factors in their destination decisions. Taken together, this chorus of concern from affluent, high-spending markets is eroding one of the United States’ most enduring advantages: its reputation as an easy, aspirational choice for international vacations.
The Numbers Behind the Slump: How Air Travel Is Changing
Beneath the headlines, the data tell a nuanced but worrying story. On one hand, total international air traffic to and from the United States, including American residents, had been edging back toward pre-pandemic levels through 2023 and much of 2024, with steady month-on-month gains as borders reopened and pent-up demand was unleashed. According to the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office, overall international visitor arrivals reached roughly two thirds of 2019 volumes in 2023 and climbed again in 2024.
On the other hand, the apparent recovery masked important fault lines. Forecasts that once predicted robust growth in foreign arrivals for 2025 have been sharply revised. A leading travel economics firm that initially projected a healthy increase in international visitors now expects a sizable decline, with its updated modeling pointing to a nearly ten percent drop in inbound tourism this year compared with earlier expectations. Internal government and industry figures for early 2025 underscore the shift: while total international air traffic is roughly flat, non-U.S. citizen air arrivals have sagged, with some months registering high single-digit or low double-digit falls versus the previous year.
Business travel has been hit particularly hard. Data from spring 2025 show that overseas corporate trips to the United States dropped by close to ten percent in a single month, with Western European business travel down by almost one fifth and Mexican business arrivals falling by more than ten percent. Long celebrated as the bedrock of profitable year-round demand, business travelers are now reconsidering itineraries amid economic jitters, tariff battles, and fears of border detentions or disruptive questioning at ports of entry.
Why Travelers Are Reconsidering the U.S.: Safety, Politics, and Border Friction
Travel decisions are rarely driven by a single factor, but interviews and surveys across multiple markets reveal a consistent set of worries about trips to the United States. Gun violence frequently tops the list for European and Canadian visitors. High-profile mass shootings, combined with intensive media coverage, have created an impression that everyday activities such as shopping, attending concerts, or sending children to school carry elevated risk. Even though the statistical likelihood of a traveler encountering such an incident remains low, perception often matters more than raw probability when it comes to choosing a holiday destination.
Political polarization and policy volatility add another layer of unease. A combative White House, ongoing disputes with allies over trade and tariffs, and very public clashes with leaders in Canada, Mexico, and Europe have all fed a sense that the U.S. is a more unpredictable place to visit than it once was. Some travelers, particularly from Western democracies, say they are reluctant to spend their holiday budget in a country whose leadership they view as hostile to their values. This sentiment is especially pronounced among younger travelers and among LGBTQ communities, who have watched a wave of state-level legislation with concern.
Border and airport experiences are the third major pressure point. From longer queues at immigration to more intensive secondary screenings, frequent travelers report that entering the United States has become slower and more stressful. Senior figures in the travel industry, including the chief executive of one of the world’s largest online travel platforms, have urged Washington to act, warning that outdated infrastructure, understaffed checkpoints, and rising visa fees are deterring visitors. For many would-be tourists, especially those who travel with children or on tight schedules, stories of missed connections and aggressive questioning carry significant weight.
The Global Competition: How Europe, Canada, and Others Are Capitalizing
While the U.S. grapples with headwinds, many of its competitors are moving aggressively to capture market share. European destinations such as France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom have invested heavily in marketing campaigns that emphasize cultural richness, walkable cities, and perceived safety. They are also streamlining entry procedures, expanding biometric fast-track lanes, and experimenting with digital visas designed to be quicker and more transparent than traditional systems.
Closer to home, Canada and Mexico are seizing the opportunity to position themselves as more relaxed, less politically fraught alternatives to U.S. cities and national parks. Canadian tourism authorities highlight the country’s inclusive social policies, modern urban centers, and vast wilderness, pitching destinations from Vancouver to Montreal as sophisticated yet low-stress options. Mexico, for its part, continues to draw North American and European visitors with beach resorts, colonial towns, and a lower cost of living, even as it balances its own security challenges.
Smaller destinations are also benefiting. Iceland has spent the past decade building a global brand around dramatic landscapes and hospitable infrastructure, drawing stopover traffic that might once have gone on to New York or Los Angeles. Switzerland markets itself as a calm, orderly haven for alpine adventures and high-end city breaks, with efficient rail links reducing reliance on internal flights. In each case, the subtext is clear: international travelers have choices, and many are opting for places that feel easier, safer, or more aligned with their values than the current image of the United States.
Economic Stakes: Airlines, Hotels, and Cities on the Front Line
The softening of demand for U.S. travel is not just a matter of national pride. It carries direct consequences for airlines, hotels, restaurants, and entire regions whose economies depend on foreign visitors. Major carriers rely on high-yield international passengers to fill premium cabins and sustain long-haul routes. When inbound demand drops by high single digits, airlines often respond by trimming frequencies, downgrading aircraft, or shifting capacity to more promising markets in Europe, Asia, or the Middle East.
For gateway cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Miami, and San Francisco, a downturn in international arrivals reverberates quickly. High-spending tourists and business travelers support luxury hotels, fine dining, cultural institutions, and retail sectors that cannot be fully replaced by domestic visitors. In regions that cater to specific overseas markets, such as Western Canadian skiers in the Rockies or European tour groups in the national parks of the Southwest, analysts warn of potential job losses and revenue gaps if current trends persist into the 2026 peak travel seasons.
Tourism boards are sounding the alarm as well. Industry groups in both the United States and partner countries stress that even an eight percent contraction in key segments can translate into billions of dollars in lost spending and tens of thousands of jobs. Once routes are cut and tour operators reprogram itineraries toward other parts of the world, rebuilding that demand can take years, not months. The concern is that a relatively short-lived political cycle could leave behind long-lasting structural damage to the appeal of the United States as a global travel hub.
What This Means for Travelers in 2026 and Beyond
For individual travelers, the turbulence in U.S. inbound travel presents both challenges and opportunities. On the plus side, weaker foreign demand combined with increased airline capacity on some transatlantic and transpacific routes could lead to more competitive fares, especially outside peak holiday periods. Travelers who do choose to visit the United States may find it marginally easier to secure hotel deals in cities that once operated at near full occupancy throughout the year, and popular attractions may feel slightly less crowded than in the immediate pre-pandemic heyday.
However, the headwinds that are deterring some visitors will also shape the experience of those who come. Border waits may remain longer than in rival hubs unless staffing and infrastructure are upgraded. Visa procedures could continue to evolve in response to shifting security priorities, so travelers should build in extra time and stay closely informed of any new requirements. Social and political tensions may be more visible in certain states or during major events, making it wise for visitors, particularly those from vulnerable or marginalized communities, to research local conditions thoroughly when planning itineraries.
Many governments, including Canada and several in Europe, are likely to keep their advisories under periodic review. Travelers should expect more nuance and specificity in official guidance, with particular attention to regional differences inside the United States. This does not necessarily mean that leisure trips are unsafe, but it does underline the need for a more informed and intentional approach than in past decades when the U.S. was often treated as a default, low-risk choice for international holidays.
Can the U.S. Turn the Tide?
Whether the current slide in international travel to the United States hardens into a long-term decline will depend on policy choices and perceptions in the coming years. Industry leaders have laid out a clear set of priorities: streamline border procedures, invest in airport modernization, expand trusted traveler programs, and reconsider fee structures that make U.S. visas among the most expensive in the world for certain nationalities. They also emphasize the importance of clear, consistent communication that reassures visitors about their rights and the welcome they can expect upon arrival.
On the political and social fronts, the picture is more complex. State-level debates over issues such as LGBTQ rights, immigration enforcement, and public safety are unlikely to recede quickly, and they will continue to shape how foreign audiences view the United States. Some tourism boards and city governments are attempting to counterbalance negative national headlines with their own messaging, highlighting inclusive local policies, community-led safety initiatives, and partnerships with international festivals and cultural institutions.
For now, the reality is that the U.S. no longer enjoys an automatic advantage in the global contest for tourists and business travelers. With Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Iceland, France, Switzerland, and others raising sharper concerns or capitalizing on U.S. missteps, the competition is only set to intensify. Travelers planning trips over the next two to three years should expect a dynamic landscape, with shifting advisories, evolving entry rules, and a widening range of attractive alternatives. The United States remains one of the world’s most compelling destinations, but it will have to work harder than at any time in recent memory to convince the world that it is worth the journey.