How likely are more flight disruptions in the next 24–48 hours?

The disruption risk at Vilnius remains high. Authorities are halting air traffic whenever a suspected balloon approaches flight paths, so further short-notice closures are very possible.

Balloon Incursions From Belarus Force Vilnius Airport Closures

Q: What exactly is happening in Lithuania’s airspace?

Lithuania reports waves of balloons launched from neighboring Belarus repeatedly violating its airspace, allegedly used by cigarette smugglers. These incursions have triggered multiple airspace closures.

Q: Why has Lithuania declared a state of emergency?

The state of emergency allows the Lithuanian government to seek broader authority for the military to support police and border guards in dealing with the balloon threat and protecting air traffic.

Q: How badly has Vilnius Airport been affected so far?

Since October, Vilnius Airport has been shut for more than 60 hours, causing disruptions to over 350 flights and affecting roughly 51,000 passengers.

Q: Are other airports in the region affected?

So far, disruptions are concentrated in Lithuania, especially Vilnius. Other airports such as Riga and Kaunas are operating normally but may handle diverted flights or extra demand when Vilnius is closed.

Q: Why are these balloons considered a serious aviation threat?

Any unidentified object near flight paths can pose a danger to aircraft. Lithuanian authorities are taking a precautionary approach, suspending operations to ensure safety until the airspace is clear.

Q: How is Belarus responding to these accusations?

European officials label the launches a “hybrid attack” and condemn them, but Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko denies responsibility and accuses Lithuania of exaggerating the threat for political reasons.

Q: Who is most affected by these disruptions?

Passengers flying into or out of Vilnius, or those using it as a connection hub, face the greatest risk of delays, diversions, or cancellations. Travelers elsewhere in Europe may see indirect effects via missed connections or rerouted services.

Q: Do EU compensation rules apply if my flight is delayed by these balloons?

Airlines may classify these incidents as extraordinary safety circumstances beyond their control, which can limit entitlement to EU financial compensation. Rebooking or refunds depend on your ticket conditions and airline policy.

Q: What can travelers do to reduce risk to their plans?

Use flexible or refundable tickets, consider travel insurance, monitor airline and airport alerts closely, and be prepared for last-minute changes when flying via Vilnius until the emergency is lifted.

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Lithuania has declared a state of emergency after waves of balloons launched from neighboring Belarus, allegedly used by cigarette smugglers, repeatedly violated its airspace and forced Vilnius Airport to close several times in recent months. These incursions have resulted in more than 60 hours of airport shutdowns since October, disrupting over 350 flights and affecting roughly 51,000 passengers.

In response, the Lithuanian government is seeking broader authority for its military to support police and border guards in addressing the balloon threat during the emergency period. European officials have condemned the launches as a hybrid attack by Belarus and called them completely unacceptable, while Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko denies any responsibility and accuses Lithuania of inflating the threat for political reasons.

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Disruption likelihood in next 24–48 hours

The likelihood of flight disruptions at Vilnius International Airport remains high in the immediate 24–48 hour period for passengers using the airport. Lithuanian authorities have been halting air traffic whenever a suspected smuggling balloon is detected near flight paths, meaning travelers should be prepared for sudden airport closures or airspace shutdowns with little warning.

The broader regional impact is currently moderate – other airports in the Baltics and surrounding countries have not been directly targeted by these balloons, but any extended closure of a major hub like Vilnius can create knock-on delays or re-routings for connecting flights across Europe.

The state of emergency and heightened security measures remain in effect until revoked by the government , signaling that elevated disruption risk will persist as long as the balloon incursions continue.

Affected regions and who is impacted

Thus far, disruptions have been concentrated in Lithuania, with Vilnius – the nation’s busiest airport – bearing the brunt of the impact. Flights into and out of Vilnius have been repeatedly suspended, diverted or cancelled during balloon alerts, leading to significant travel delays and thousands of passengers stranded when the airport shuts down.

As Vilnius is a key air transit point for the Baltic region, these local shutdowns can also affect travelers on multi-leg itineraries: those who rely on Vilnius for connections may miss onward flights or face rerouting through other hubs on short notice.

While neighboring countries’ airports (for example, Latvia’s Riga or Lithuania’s own secondary Kaunas Airport) have largely operated normally, they could see ripple effects – such as handling diverted flights or accommodating extra demand – whenever Vilnius is out of service.

Overall, the most immediate impact is on anyone flying directly to/from Vilnius or using it as a connection point, whereas travelers elsewhere in Europe experience only indirect effects unless the disruptions expand beyond Lithuanian airspace.

Why travelers should care

If you plan to fly into or out of Vilnius in the near future, be aware of this unusual security-related disruption risk that can upend travel plans with no advance notice. Unlike weather delays or routine operational issues, these airport closures occur abruptly whenever a stray balloon drifts into Lithuanian airspace, and they can last for hours – in one recent case, a single balloon forced Vilnius Airport to remain closed for nearly 12 hours.

This means even on a clear day your flight could be delayed, diverted to another airport, or canceled entirely due to a balloon sighting. Travelers should consider purchasing travel insurance and opting for flexible or refundable tickets, as airlines may classify these incidents as extraordinary safety circumstances beyond their control.

Under such conditions, normal EU compensation rules for flight delays might not apply, so having the ability to reschedule or reimburse your trip can save considerable hassle. In short, stay prepared for last-minute changes when traveling via Vilnius, and keep in close contact with your airline for updates until this state of emergency is lifted.

FAQ

Q1. What exactly is happening in Lithuania’s airspace?
Lithuania reports repeated airspace violations by balloons launched from neighboring Belarus, allegedly used by cigarette smugglers. These incursions have caused multiple temporary airspace closures.

Q2. Why has Lithuania declared a state of emergency?
The emergency status allows the government to authorize additional military support for police and border guards to handle the balloon threat and protect civil aviation.

Q3. How badly has Vilnius Airport been affected so far?
Since October, Vilnius Airport has been closed for more than 60 hours, disrupting over 350 flights and affecting around 51,000 passengers.

Q4. How likely are more flight disruptions in the next 24 to 48 hours?
The risk remains high. Authorities suspend air traffic whenever a suspected balloon enters controlled airspace, so further short notice closures are very possible.

Q5. Are other airports in the region affected?
So far, disruptions are concentrated in Lithuania, mainly Vilnius. Riga and Kaunas continue normal operations but may receive diverted flights or extra traffic when Vilnius shuts down.

Q6. Why are these balloons considered a serious aviation threat?
Any unidentified object near flight paths poses a risk to aircraft. Lithuanian authorities follow strict precautionary procedures and halt operations until the airspace is confirmed safe.

Q7. How is Belarus responding to these accusations?
European officials describe the balloon activity as a hybrid attack. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko denies involvement and accuses Lithuania of exaggeration.

Q8. Who is most affected by these disruptions?
Passengers flying from or to Vilnius, or connecting through it, face the highest risk of delays, diversions, or cancellations. Travelers across Europe may also feel indirect effects through missed connections.

Q9. Do EU compensation rules apply if my flight is delayed by these balloons?
Airlines can classify these incidents as extraordinary safety circumstances beyond their control, which limits eligibility for EU financial compensation. Refunds or rebooking follow airline policy and ticket terms.

Q10. What can travelers do to reduce risk to their plans?
Choose flexible or refundable tickets, monitor airline and airport alerts, consider travel insurance, and prepare for last minute itinerary changes when traveling through Vilnius until the situation stabilizes.