Cuba is confronting a sudden and deeply intertwined aviation and migration shock that is reverberating through its tourism economy and reshaping escape routes for its citizens. A month long shortage of jet fuel is forcing airlines to cancel or radically reconfigure flights just as neighboring Nicaragua, under mounting United States pressure, has shut down visa free entry for Cubans, effectively closing a key corridor toward the U.S. mainland. For travelers, airlines and would be migrants, the dual squeeze is transforming how the island is connected to the rest of the world.
A Jet Fuel Drought Grounds an Island
The immediate trigger for Cuba’s aviation crisis is a notice to airlines that standard Jet A 1 fuel will not be available at the country’s principal international gateways for roughly a month. A Notice to Air Missions issued out of Havana’s José Martí International Airport indicates that, from February 10 to at least March 11, carriers will be unable to refuel at nine major airports, including Havana, Varadero, Santa Clara, Holguín, Camagüey, Cienfuegos, Cayo Coco, Santiago de Cuba and Manzanillo. For a country whose economy and connectivity depend heavily on air links, a blanket fuel shortage of this scale is extraordinary.
The shortfall is not a routine supply hiccup but the culmination of an escalating oil squeeze. Cuba has long relied on allies such as Venezuela and, more recently, Mexico to provide crude and refined products. That lifeline has been disrupted since late 2025, when Washington under President Donald Trump moved to block Venezuelan exports and threatened tariffs on any nation shipping oil to the island. Those measures have effectively frozen deliveries, leaving Cuba with dwindling reserves and forcing the government to choose between keeping power stations running, fueling ground transport and supplying jet fuel to commercial aviation.
Officials in Havana have framed the fuel collapse as part of a broader economic war, comparing the moment to the hardship of the 1990s following the Soviet Union’s collapse. Rolling blackouts, fuel rationing for motorists and halting of nonessential activities have all been reported, but the decision to pull jet fuel from international airports signals that the crisis has entered a new, more globally visible phase. Airlines are now left to decide whether to tanker extra fuel, add stopovers in nearby countries or suspend services altogether.
Airlines Retrench, Reroute and Repatriate
Among the first major carriers to respond was Air Canada, which announced on February 9 that it is suspending its commercial service to Cuba due to the fuel shortage. The airline, which typically operates around 16 weekly flights to four Cuban destinations, is now dispatching empty aircraft southbound in order to repatriate roughly 3,000 travelers already vacationing on the island. Once those operations are complete, scheduled services will pause until conditions stabilize and fuel availability can be assured.
Other international airlines are adjusting rather than cancelling entirely, at least for now. Aviation industry outlets report that carriers from Russia, Europe and Latin America are planning technical stops in third countries such as the Dominican Republic, Mexico or Panama to refuel before or after serving Cuban routes. American carriers that already tank in extra fuel from U.S. hubs are signaling that they can continue flying without relying on Cuban airport supplies, although they too face tighter operational margins and higher costs as the crisis persists.
The disruption reaches far beyond medium haul leisure flights. According to schedules compiled by aviation data firms, nearly 400 weekly services and tens of thousands of seats could be affected in February alone. Airlines such as WestJet, American Airlines and Copa, which together account for a large share of traffic into Havana, Varadero and other resort airports, are being forced to redraw networks in real time. Russian carriers serving popular sun destinations like Varadero and Holguín are also reworking timetables and routings, in some cases trimming capacity to avoid the risk of aircraft stranded without refueling options.
For travelers from Canada, Europe and Latin America, the result is a patchwork of cancellations, rerouted journeys and lengthened travel times. Confusion at booking desks and call centers has been compounded by the short lead time on the fuel notice, which was issued only days before the shutdown. While most visitors already in Cuba are likely to be flown home, those planning upcoming trips face an uncertain landscape marked by provisional schedules and frequent last minute changes.
Tourism Under Strain as Connectivity Falters
The impact of the aviation shutdown lands on a tourism industry already struggling to regain its footing after the pandemic and years of economic turbulence. Visitor arrivals in 2025 were estimated at under two million, a far cry from pre 2019 peaks when more than four million tourists a year brought crucial hard currency into the economy. Resorts in Varadero and the northern keys have been operating with reduced occupancy, and several international hotel chains have consolidated guests into fewer properties to conserve energy and staffing.
With jet fuel unavailable at key airports, travel to island resorts becomes more complex and expensive. Carriers forced to add technical stops or tanker additional fuel face higher operating costs, which can translate into higher fares, fewer frequencies or outright route suspensions. Tour operators in Canada and Europe, who rely on predictable, year round lift into Cuban beach destinations, must now weigh whether to shift capacity to competitors in Mexico, the Dominican Republic or other Caribbean islands not facing similar fuel constraints.
The government has begun to take visible steps to reduce energy consumption in the tourism sector, including the temporary closure of hotels with low occupancy and scaling back services at some airports. At Jardines del Rey, the gateway to Cayo Coco, authorities have implemented restricted hours for meteorological and aeronautical information services, and reported failures in navigation equipment. Such measures, while aimed at managing scarce resources, can further erode the reliability and attractiveness of Cuba as a destination in the eyes of both airlines and travelers.
For Cubans working in tourism, from hotel staff to taxi drivers and private guesthouse owners, the aviation crunch raises fears of a new downturn after a brief post pandemic recovery. Many rely on foreign visitors for income that helps cushion the effects of domestic shortages of fuel, food and basic goods. If airlines scale back operations throughout the northern winter and spring, the knock on effects will ripple through local economies in Havana, Matanzas, Holguín and beyond.
Nicaragua Shuts the Door on a Key Migration Corridor
While Cuba’s skies are being constrained by fuel scarcity and external pressure, another vital route out of the country is closing on the ground. On February 8, Nicaragua revoked the visa free entry regime for Cuban citizens traveling with ordinary passports, ending a policy in place since late 2021 that had turned the Central American nation into a principal springboard for Cubans heading north toward the United States.
Under the previous arrangement, tens of thousands of Cubans purchased commercial or charter flights to Managua, often at high cost, then continued their journey overland through Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico, usually with the help of smugglers. The corridor allowed many to bypass dangerous sea crossings and rigid visa barriers elsewhere, even as it fed a sharp increase in irregular arrivals at the U.S. southern border. Washington responded over the past two years with sanctions and visa restrictions targeting charter operators, Nicaraguan officials and business figures accused of facilitating that flow.
Nicaragua’s new policy shifts Cuban travelers from a visa exempt category to a status that requires a consultative visa. Official statements indicate that these visas will be processed online and issued without a fee, but the very requirement of prior authorization introduces a strong filter. In practice, the change means Cuban migrants can no longer simply purchase a ticket and fly out, closing one of the least perilous paths out of an island in crisis.
The move also reflects changing geopolitical calculations in Managua. The Ortega administration had presented its open door to Cubans in 2021 as a humanitarian gesture in the wake of the pandemic. Over time, however, the policy became a point of tension with the United States, which accused Nicaragua of weaponizing migration to exert pressure on Washington. Now, with American sanctions biting and political stakes rising, closing off easy entry for Cubans may be seen by Nicaragua’s leadership as a way to reduce friction and demonstrate selective responsiveness without altering its domestic posture.
The Human Cost for Would Be Migrants
For ordinary Cubans contemplating emigration, the combined effect of an aviation fuel squeeze and the closure of the Nicaraguan route is profound. Even before the latest measures, record numbers of Cubans were leaving via any means available, driven by inflation, shortages, low wages and a pervasive sense of stagnation. The legal pathways to resettlement in the United States and other countries remain narrow; as a result, many have turned to irregular routes, despite the risks of exploitation, violence and extortion.
Without easy air access to Managua, many potential migrants will now look to more distant and dangerous alternatives. These include traveling first to South American countries with more accessible visas, then trekking north through the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama, a jungle corridor notorious for its harsh conditions and criminal activity. Others may attempt traditional sea routes toward Florida, often in improvised vessels that are vulnerable to storms and interdiction. Each option carries a higher physical and financial toll than the Managua pathway, which, while risky, allowed many to avoid the most perilous legs of the journey.
The cost of migration is also set to rise. Smuggling networks that previously specialized in organizing travel from Nicaraguan airports are expected to adapt by offering new packages through South America or the Caribbean, with prices reflecting longer routes and increased danger. Families in Cuba often sell homes, cars or small businesses to finance such journeys, leaving them with little safety net if their relatives are detained, deported or stranded en route. Humanitarian organizations warn that more restrictive migration policies without corresponding legal channels often push people into the hands of more ruthless criminal groups.
At the same time, the aviation fuel crisis can directly complicate even legal travel for Cubans, from those joining family abroad to students and medical professionals assigned to overseas missions. With fewer flights, higher ticket prices and unpredictable schedules, the logistics of leaving the island lawfully become ever more complex, reinforcing a sense of isolation at a moment when many already feel trapped by economic and political constraints.
Washington’s Pressure Campaign and Regional Repercussions
The turbulence buffeting Cuba’s aviation and migration landscape takes place against the backdrop of a sharpened United States strategy. The current U.S. administration has made no secret of its desire to squeeze the Cuban government through economic measures, especially targeting its energy lifelines. The effective oil blockade, achieved not through formal naval enforcement but via financial and tariff threats against third countries, has crippled key sectors of the island’s economy while stopping short of direct military confrontation.
At the same time, Washington has leaned on regional partners to curb the flow of migrants heading toward the U.S. border. Visa restrictions on transportation executives, sanctions against Nicaraguan officials and pressure on charter flight operators have all been part of a wider effort to dismantle the airbridge between Havana and Managua. The recent Nicaraguan decision to revoke visa free entry for Cubans can be read in that context, even if Managua officially frames it as a sovereign policy shift.
These moves carry diplomatic and humanitarian costs. Governments in Mexico and parts of Central America have criticized aspects of the oil measures, with some describing them as punitive and counterproductive. Human rights organizations argue that the combined effect of economic pressure and migration restrictions deepens civilian suffering without producing clear political openings in Havana. They have called for a greater emphasis on humanitarian aid, targeted sanctions against specific officials and the expansion of lawful migration channels to reduce the incentives for dangerous journeys.
For the broader Caribbean and Central American region, the disruptions in Cuba’s connectivity and migration patterns can have spillover effects. Neighboring islands and coastal states may see shifts in tourist flows, charter operations and maritime traffic as airlines, cruise companies and travelers reorient away from or around Cuba. Countries that have become waypoints for Cuban migrants passing through airports and bus terminals may now experience changes in the volume and profile of people on the move, with implications for local security, public services and bilateral relations with the United States.
Travelers Navigate an Uncertain New Reality
For international travelers with plans to visit Cuba in the coming weeks and months, the emerging picture is one of volatility rather than complete isolation. Commercial flights have not been universally halted, but they are subject to rapid adjustment as airlines respond to the lack of on island fuel. Carriers that can operate with tankered fuel from their home bases may maintain a skeleton schedule, while others, like Air Canada, have opted to pause service entirely until conditions normalize.
Those already on the island are likely to see airlines prioritize repatriation flights to clear backlogs of stranded passengers. Resorts and hotels are still open in main tourist areas, though some properties have been temporarily closed to save energy and concentrate resources. Visitors should expect occasional power cuts, reduced ground transportation options due to fuel rationing, and potential changes in departure dates and times as airlines juggle limited operational flexibility.
Looking further ahead, the current fuel shortage is formally time bound, tied to the period specified in international notices. What remains unclear is whether new oil supplies will arrive in sufficient volume to restore aviation fuel stocks after March 11, or whether political dynamics will prolong or deepen the crisis. Similarly, Nicaragua’s new visa regime for Cubans could be tightened or administered in a way that effectively blocks most applicants, or it could evolve over time if regional negotiations shift the incentives for Managua and Havana.
For now, Cuba’s skies and exits are narrower than they have been in years, pinched by fuel scarcity and border controls that have converged almost simultaneously. Travelers, airlines and migrants alike are adjusting to a landscape in which every flight itinerary and migration route is more fragile, more expensive and more uncertain than before. How long this moment lasts will depend as much on decisions in Washington, Managua and other foreign capitals as on any policy set in Havana itself.