International arrival numbers to the United States are sending mixed signals as 2026 begins. Official forecasts still predict growth for the full year 2025, yet a string of soft monthly data, weakening sentiment in key European markets and new travel advisories from Germany and Italy are reshaping the outlook. California has now joined Texas, Nevada, New Jersey, Georgia, Massachusetts and New York among the states feeling the brunt of a surprising late‑2025 downturn in overseas visitors, just as analysts had expected a smooth glide path back to pre‑pandemic levels. For the travel industry, the narrative of a strong rebound has given way to one of fragile recovery and exposed vulnerabilities.
A Forecast of Growth Meets a Sudden Slowdown
When the National Travel and Tourism Office released its official forecast for 2025, the headline was upbeat. The United States was projected to welcome about 77 million international visitors in 2025, a 6 to 7 percent increase over 2024 and a major step toward surpassing 2019’s record levels by 2026. Trade media and destination marketers seized on the figures as proof that the worst was over and that global travelers were firmly rediscovering America’s big‑ticket destinations, from New York and Los Angeles to Orlando and San Francisco.
On paper, the story is compelling. Total arrivals climbed by more than 9 percent in 2024 compared with 2023, closing in on 91 percent of 2019 visitation. Western Europe, fuelled by resilient demand from Italy and Germany, stood out as the largest overseas region for inbound travel. Italy actually surpassed its 2019 visitor volume to the United States, while Germany approached parity. For gateway states heavily exposed to transatlantic travel, those numbers looked like a solid foundation for further growth in 2025.
Yet monthly data released through the second half of 2025 has pointed in a different direction. By June 2025, international arrivals to the United States were already down more than 6 percent compared with June 2024. September’s figures were more troubling, with arrivals falling 11 percent year on year and total visitor volume still almost 20 percent below pre‑pandemic levels for that month. Industry analysts at Tourism Economics now project an 8‑plus percent decline in annual international arrivals for 2025, signalling that the upbeat annual forecasts may not fully capture the darker mood taking hold among travelers.
California and Key States Feel the Chill
The headline numbers hide stark regional variations. California, which relies heavily on high‑spending international visitors and convention business, has been among the first to report a noticeable slide in overseas arrivals since mid‑2025. Tourism boards in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco have flagged softer hotel occupancy rates from Western Europe, with German and Italian bookings weakening after a promising start to the year. Airlines have responded by quietly trimming winter capacity on some transatlantic routes to California’s gateway airports.
Other big‑ticket destinations are in similar territory. New York, historically the largest point of entry for international visitors, saw robust growth in 2024 but has since reported a plateau and then modest contraction in some European source markets. Massachusetts, with Boston’s strong ties to Ireland, the UK, Germany and Italy, is also confronting softer leisure demand alongside corporate belt‑tightening. In the South, Florida is grappling with a separate mix of hurricane‑season disruptions and insurance‑driven price pressures, while Georgia’s capital Atlanta has begun to see slower growth in long‑haul arrivals than earlier anticipated.
States that depend disproportionately on gaming, road trips and budget‑conscious travelers are hardly immune. Nevada’s marquee destinations, led by Las Vegas, are seeing more Americans spend freely on entertainment but fewer high‑margin overseas guests extending their trips with add‑on visits to California and national parks. Texas, a rising star in both leisure and business travel, has drawn record domestic interest but reported soft spots in its long‑haul pipeline. New Jersey, heavily intertwined with the New York region’s air gateways, mirrors the metropolitan story: full hotels on many weekends, yet a subtle thinning of European and Canadian guests in the mix.
Italy and Germany Shift Sentiment on US Travel
Behind the turn in the numbers is a less immediately visible shift: a change in how travelers in Europe’s core markets perceive a trip to the United States. Germany and Italy, two of the most important European source markets for US tourism, have both recorded drops in travel to America in the latest models, despite having been early leaders in the post‑pandemic rebound. German arrivals in particular have softened, contributing to an overall decline in overseas visitor numbers even as some other markets hold up.
Part of that story is economic. Inflation and higher borrowing costs in Europe have squeezed discretionary income, and the cost of a US vacation, priced in dollars, has climbed. Airfares on transatlantic routes remain relatively high compared with pre‑pandemic norms, and hotel rates in major US cities are significantly above 2019 levels. For many Italian and German families weighing a long‑haul journey, that has shifted the calculus in favor of closer and sometimes cheaper options across Europe, North Africa or the Middle East.
But sentiment and perceived safety are now playing an equally important role. Germany’s Federal Foreign Office recently sharpened its travel and safety advice regarding the United States, calling for heightened vigilance amid high‑profile protests and security incidents. The guidance stops well short of telling Germans not to travel, yet the psychological impact is significant. For risk‑averse travelers, especially older visitors who make up a disproportionate share of long‑haul spenders, a government warning can be enough to push the US down the list of preferred destinations.
Italian travelers are reading the same headlines. While Italy’s outbound travel market has remained relatively robust, travel agents report more frequent questions about safety, visa‑waiver procedures and the overall climate in the United States. Taken together, the change in tone from two of Europe’s most important outbound markets amounts to a subtle but meaningful blow to US destinations that had been counting on Italy and Germany to provide a steady base of high‑value visitors through 2025.
Policy Friction and Data Concerns Add Headwinds
Beyond economics and safety perception, policy friction is adding another layer of complexity to the transatlantic travel equation. Updated US entry requirements, including more detailed information requested through the ESTA system, have drawn criticism in Germany, where the Federal Commissioner for Data Protection publicly urged citizens to weigh carefully how much personal data they are willing to share to visit the United States. In a European context where data privacy is highly valued, warnings from a national data authority carry weight.
For would‑be visitors, the process of planning a trip to the United States now involves navigating a more complex digital border. Newcomers to the market may not distinguish between a standard online authorization and more intrusive data collection; they simply perceive that visiting America requires sharing more about themselves than visiting many other countries. That perception can be particularly damaging for states that rely on spontaneous, last‑minute bookings from Europe, such as city‑break destinations in California, New York or Massachusetts.
At the same time, new outbound rules introduced in Europe are reshaping travel flows. The European Union’s Entry/Exit System has begun rolling out, and the ETIAS travel authorization for Americans heading to much of Europe is scheduled to follow in 2026. While ETIAS does not directly affect Europeans visiting the United States, it is part of a wider climate of tightening border controls and administrative procedures on both sides of the Atlantic. Travel planners say clients are increasingly sensitive to bureaucracy and opt for destinations that feel frictionless.
For US tourism marketers, the danger is that the country acquires a reputation as administratively heavy and unpredictable compared with competing destinations. Over time, even a small deterrent factor can compound into a measurable drop in arrivals, particularly when competing with destinations that invest heavily in signaling openness and simplicity, such as Mediterranean countries actively courting long‑haul visitors from Italy and Germany’s affluent travelers.
Cracks in the Recovery: From National Numbers to Local Pain
National statistics tell only part of the story. While total international visitor spending in the United States remained roughly flat year on year in 2025, that stability masks a shift in composition. Canadian and Mexican travel, much of it by road, continues to represent a large share of inbound volume. In contrast, some key long‑haul markets that typically generate higher per‑day spending have cooled. When adjusted for inflation, spending by overseas visitors has barely grown, even as costs for operators have risen sharply.
In destinations such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas, New York City and Boston, hotel and attraction operators report that they are working harder for each international booking. Travel advisors in Europe describe clients shopping around for package prices more aggressively, shortening lengths of stay, or dropping one US city from multi‑stop itineraries. For California’s coastal communities, that can translate into slower midweek business and fewer visitors in shoulder seasons, where European travelers once helped smooth out volatility.
The downstream effects are broad. Restaurants that cater to foreign guests, guided tour companies, small museums and independent retailers in high‑tourism neighborhoods are among the first to notice when the mix of visitors shifts toward more budget‑conscious domestic travelers. Convention and meetings destinations worry about the knock‑on effect on international delegate numbers. Airline seat cuts on certain transatlantic routes ripple further, reducing connectivity for secondary cities in states such as Georgia and Texas that depend on hub traffic.
For local officials, the concern is that a temporary soft patch could turn into a structural disadvantage if competitors move swiftly to seize market share. With inbound travel still not fully recovered to 2019 levels, any prolonged underperformance now risks leaving the United States permanently behind rival destinations that have already surpassed their pre‑pandemic peaks.
Competition Heats Up in a Crowded Global Marketplace
As the United States grapples with sentiment challenges, other parts of the world are redoubling efforts to attract travelers from Italy, Germany and across Europe. Mediterranean destinations such as Spain, Greece and Croatia have poured resources into targeted marketing campaigns, emphasizing affordability, ease of access and shared cultural affinities. North African countries have upgraded resort infrastructure and air connectivity, while Gulf states continue to position themselves as luxurious, hassle‑free hubs for both stopovers and longer stays.
For many European travelers, especially those from Italy and Germany, these alternatives feel both closer and simpler. Visa requirements are minimal or nonexistent, flight times are shorter, and the currency environment is less punishing. Well‑publicized rail passes and intra‑European flight deals encourage multi‑country itineraries that keep travelers within a familiar regulatory framework. Against this backdrop, a long‑haul trip to California’s Pacific Coast or New York’s cultural landmarks becomes a discretionary indulgence rather than a default choice.
The United States still has formidable assets. Iconic landscapes in the West, the global cultural capital of New York, the originality of American music cities, and the allure of national parks offer experiences that cannot be easily replicated. Yet in a world of rising costs and elevated anxiety, these selling points must increasingly compete with pragmatism. When destination marketers in Germany and Italy survey their customers, they hear a similar refrain: travelers will still splurge, but they want clarity, safety and predictability in return.
That dynamic puts pressure on US states that have leaned heavily on their globally recognized brands. California, Nevada and New York can no longer assume that their names alone will carry them through a downturn. Instead, they face the same task as emerging destinations in the South and interior: making a case that they are worth the extra planning, paperwork and price premium compared with destinations closer to home for European travelers.
How Destinations Are Responding and What Comes Next
In response to the changing landscape, tourism boards across the United States are recalibrating their strategies for 2026 and beyond. California is shifting campaign messaging in Italy and Germany toward value, emphasizing multi‑center itineraries that combine city culture with outdoor experiences in wine country, deserts and national parks. New York and Massachusetts are leaning into storytelling about neighborhoods and seasonal travel, encouraging repeat visitors to discover lesser‑known aspects of familiar cities at times of year when prices are more attractive.
States such as Georgia and Texas are working to turn their aviation hubs into stronger magnets for European visitors. By partnering with airlines and tour operators, they aim to convert connecting passengers into stopover guests through tailored packages and simplified booking options. Nevada, meanwhile, is intensifying its efforts to highlight non‑gaming attractions and regional road‑trip loops that connect Las Vegas with national parks in neighboring states, attempting to coax longer stays from fewer long‑haul visitors.
Industry leaders are also pressing for a more coordinated national response. There is growing support for efforts to streamline visa and entry processes, modernize digital platforms and improve the clarity of official communications so that potential visitors from Italy, Germany and other key markets feel better informed and less daunted by the administrative side of a US trip. At the same time, there is recognition that addressing safety perceptions will require more than marketing. High‑profile incidents and polarizing domestic debates inevitably echo abroad, shaping views in ways that destination campaigns alone cannot fully counter.
The question facing US tourism as 2026 approaches is whether the current downturn in international arrivals will prove cyclical or structural. Global events on the horizon, from the 2026 FIFA World Cup matches in multiple US cities to the 2028 Olympics and Paralympics in Los Angeles, promise powerful catalysts for renewed interest. If the industry can navigate the immediate headwinds, these spectacles could help restore momentum and remind travelers in Italy, Germany and beyond why the United States remains a singular place to visit.
For now, however, the message from the data is unambiguous. Visitor numbers are not following the smooth upward arc that many had hoped for at the start of 2025. Instead, the recovery is splintered, with California and other major destinations sharing in a volatile pattern of gains and setbacks. Whether that freefall in certain segments becomes a lasting reset will depend on how quickly the United States can adapt to a more demanding, more cautious global traveler, and how convincingly it can signal that the world is still welcome across its borders.