Newly proposed changes to the United States’ Electronic System for Travel Authorization, better known as ESTA, have set off alarm bells across the global travel sector.

Industry groups warn that the additional requirements, intended to tighten security screening for visitors from visa waiver countries, could sharply dampen demand for U.S. trips and trigger an estimated 15.7 billion dollars in lost visitor spending over the next several years.

As policymakers weigh the modifications, airlines, tour operators and destination marketers say the stakes could not be higher for an inbound market that is already losing ground to rival destinations.

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What Is Changing With ESTA and Why Now

ESTA is the online pre-travel authorization system that citizens of 41 Visa Waiver Program countries must complete before boarding a flight or ship bound for the United States. For years, the application has asked for biographical details, travel plans and security-related questions, and has typically taken most travelers only a few minutes to complete. The Department of Homeland Security now wants to add a more extensive set of data points that would deepen background checks and broaden advance screening.

According to filings and summaries circulated in recent months, the proposed modifications include expanded questions about travelers’ employment histories, education, past travel and, in some versions of the draft, optional but strongly encouraged disclosure of social media identifiers. Civil liberties advocates and inbound travel organizations say these additions would lengthen application times, increase errors and generate uncertainty about how the information will be used, stored and shared.

U.S. officials argue that enhancing ESTA is a relatively low-cost way to strengthen border security for a category of travelers who do not undergo traditional visa interviews. They point out that the Visa Waiver Program was designed to be both secure and efficient, and that evolving global threats require updated tools and more robust data. For the travel industry, however, the timing is especially sensitive as the U.S. struggles to reverse a slide in international market share and repair its reputation as a welcoming destination.

The 15.7 Billion Dollar Question: How the Loss Is Calculated

The headline figure of 15.7 billion dollars in at-risk visitor spending comes from industry economists looking at how even modest drops in long-haul demand can cascade through the broader travel economy. Overseas visitors to the United States spend, on average, about 4,000 dollars per trip on lodging, dining, transportation, shopping and attractions, far more than the typical domestic traveler. Each small percentage decline in inbound spending represents billions of dollars in lost export revenue over a year.

Analyses by travel trade groups indicate that if the proposed ESTA changes deter just a few percentage points’ worth of would-be travelers from visa waiver countries over a multi-year period, the cumulative economic hit could reach 15.7 billion dollars or more. That scenario reflects not only trips that are never booked but also shorter stays, lower per-trip spending and diversion of high-value visitors to competitor destinations in Europe, Asia or the Middle East that have streamlined their own entry processes.

The figure is also being discussed in the context of wider headwinds for U.S. inbound travel. The World Travel and Tourism Council estimates that international visitor spending in the United States is already set to fall by roughly 12.5 billion dollars in 2025 compared with the previous year, at a time when other major economies expect gains. When combined with those broader trends, the projected impact from lengthier and more intrusive ESTA forms is seen as a potential drag on growth rather than a narrow, one-off cost.

Why the U.S. Can Least Afford New Barriers Right Now

The warning over a 15.7 billion dollar loss lands as U.S. inbound travel is underperforming on multiple fronts. International arrivals remain below 2019 levels, and the United States has lost market share to countries that moved faster to rebuild long-haul demand after the pandemic. Research commissioned by the U.S. Travel Association recently ranked the country near the bottom of a group of leading destinations on key measures of competitiveness, particularly in areas tied to security, facilitation and traveler experience.

At the same time, federal data show that international visitors currently inject hundreds of millions of dollars a day into the U.S. economy through travel and tourism spending. Yet monthly reports from the National Travel and Tourism Office point to uneven performance, with some months in 2025 recording year-over-year declines in inbound outlays even as global travel continues to expand. Industry leaders say that in this environment, any policy change that makes the U.S. seem more complex, less predictable or less welcoming risks compounding existing structural challenges.

Policymakers have also set ambitious targets that assume a more robust recovery. The U.S. Department of Commerce has endorsed a goal of welcoming 90 million international visitors by 2027, a benchmark that would require steady growth and a highly competitive offering. Large events on the horizon, including the FIFA World Cup in 2026 and the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028, are expected to draw millions of additional visitors. Travel executives argue that making ESTA more burdensome at this juncture could blunt the economic dividends of those marquee occasions.

How the Proposed Changes Could Affect Travelers and Trips

From a traveler’s perspective, the most immediate impact of the proposed ESTA modifications would be additional time, complexity and perceived risk in the trip planning process. Instead of a quick online form, applicants could face detailed questions about employment history, academic background, prior stays in the United States and digital activity. For repeat visitors and business travelers who are accustomed to a streamlined experience, that may translate into frustration and uncertainty.

Privacy concerns loom especially large around any move to collect social media identifiers, even if officially presented as optional. Advocacy organizations have documented a chilling effect from similar requirements in other immigration contexts, with applicants altering or deleting posts and limiting online expression for fear that jokes, criticism or misinterpreted content could be taken out of context. For leisure travelers weighing a holiday in the United States against destinations where such disclosures are not requested, these sensitivities could tip the scales.

There is also the risk of increased application denials or delays driven not by genuine security threats but by misunderstandings, minor inconsistencies or technical problems. Travel trade groups warn that first-time visitors, older applicants and those with limited English proficiency may be disproportionately affected by a more complicated form. If border authorities then treat any ESTA issue as grounds for secondary inspections or refusals at the port of entry, stories of unpleasant experiences could spread quickly on social media and in foreign press, reinforcing the perception of an unwelcoming environment.

Who Stands To Lose: States, Cities and the Travel Workforce

The potential 15.7 billion dollar shortfall would not be felt evenly across the United States. Major gateway states that rely heavily on overseas visitors, including California, Florida, New York, Nevada and Texas, are especially exposed. Recent state-level forecasts already anticipate declines in international arrivals for 2025, with California, for example, projecting a measurable drop in visitor spending driven by falling numbers from Canada and key overseas markets.

In New York City and other urban hubs that depend on long-haul tourism, fewer high-spending visitors can quickly translate into lower hotel occupancy, weaker restaurant and retail sales, and pressure on cultural institutions that rely on ticket revenues. Tourism boards are already recalibrating expectations for the next two years, revising down projections for both visitor volume and associated spending as global economic conditions, exchange rates and policy changes weigh on demand.

Behind the aggregate figures are hundreds of thousands of jobs in hotels, airports, attractions, ground transportation and restaurants that are supported by international tourism. The travel industry frequently notes that inbound visitor spending functions as an export, bringing foreign currency directly into local communities. A sustained shortfall of more than 15 billion dollars, layered on top of existing declines, could make it harder for small businesses to expand, deter new investment in tourism infrastructure and limit wage growth for frontline workers.

Industry Pushback and Calls for a Different Approach

The reaction from the travel sector and civil society has been swift and pointed. Inbound tour operators, airline associations and hotel groups have urged the administration to reconsider the scope of the proposed ESTA changes, arguing that security and competitiveness need not be mutually exclusive. They point to other advanced economies that have invested in digital border systems, automation and risk-based screening without asking travelers to surrender extensive additional personal or social media information.

Advocacy organizations focused on privacy and civil liberties have, for their part, questioned the effectiveness of social media screening as a security tool. Past reviews of similar proposals at the federal level have struggled to demonstrate clear, evidence-based benefits that justify the volume of data collected. Critics warn that normalizing social media disclosure in travel contexts could expand surveillance in ways that chill speech and association well beyond the immediate visa waiver population.

There are also concerns about reciprocity. Some foreign governments have signaled in the past that if the United States adds onerous requirements for their citizens, they may respond with their own entry hurdles for U.S. travelers. That prospect worries American airlines, tour operators and destination marketing organizations that have worked for years to promote outbound and inbound travel links. They argue that a more balanced strategy would focus on eliminating existing bottlenecks, such as lengthy visa wait times and understaffed ports of entry, while leveraging existing data more efficiently rather than creating new friction points.

What International Travelers Should Do Now

For travelers in visa waiver countries currently planning trips to the United States, the most urgent message is to pay close attention to official updates on ESTA requirements in the months ahead. Until any proposed changes are formally approved and implemented, the existing application form and process remain in place. Prospective visitors are advised to complete their ESTA well in advance of booking nonrefundable flights or accommodation, monitor their email for any follow-up instructions or authorizations, and print or save confirmation details.

Travel advisors and tour operators recommend building in greater lead times for group trips, study tours and corporate travel that depend on a large number of ESTA approvals. They also suggest having contingency plans, such as flexible ticketing options and alternative destinations, in the event that new rules are introduced with short notice or in a phased manner by nationality or region. Clear communication with clients about possible data requirements, processing times and obligations at the border can help manage expectations and reduce last-minute surprises.

Individual travelers who are uneasy about potential new data fields, particularly around social media, will need to weigh their comfort level should such questions ultimately be adopted. Legal experts stress that travelers should answer all mandatory questions truthfully and completely, but also note that applicants retain rights regarding how their data is stored and used. In many cases, travel insurance policies and credit card protections can help mitigate the financial risks of canceled or disrupted trips, but they cannot resolve authorization issues stemming from incomplete or inaccurate ESTA submissions.

FAQ

Q1. What exactly is ESTA and who needs it to visit the United States?
ESTA, or the Electronic System for Travel Authorization, is an online pre-screening system for citizens of Visa Waiver Program countries who plan to visit the United States for tourism or business for up to 90 days without obtaining a traditional visa. Travelers from these countries must secure an approved ESTA before boarding a flight or ship bound for the U.S.

Q2. What kinds of changes are being proposed to the current ESTA form?
The proposed changes would expand the range of information requested on the ESTA application, including more detailed questions about employment and education histories, prior travel, and in some drafts the option or expectation to provide social media identifiers. The intention is to enhance security vetting, but critics fear it will make the process more time-consuming and intrusive.

Q3. Where does the 15.7 billion dollar loss estimate come from?
The 15.7 billion dollar figure is derived from industry economic modeling that looks at how tightening entry procedures can reduce demand from high-spending international visitors over several years. By assuming relatively small percentage drops in arrivals and per-trip spending among visa waiver travelers, and applying average trip expenditure data, analysts project a cumulative loss of around 15.7 billion dollars in visitor spending.

Q4. Will these ESTA modifications affect all foreign travelers to the U.S.?
No. The proposed changes are directed at travelers using the Visa Waiver Program, who rely on ESTA instead of applying for a traditional visa. Visitors who require a visa, such as those from non-waiver countries, already go through a separate consular process. However, critics note that tightening one part of the system can influence perceptions of the entire U.S. entry regime.

Q5. Are the new ESTA questions already in effect today?
As of late January 2026, the proposed modifications are still under review and have not yet been fully implemented. Travelers are currently completing the existing ESTA form, but they should monitor official announcements, as the specifics and timing of any changes could evolve over the coming months.

Q6. How could a more complex ESTA form actually reduce visitor numbers?
Additional questions and perceived data risks can discourage some travelers from choosing the United States, especially when rival destinations offer simpler procedures. Longer application times, higher error rates, privacy worries and fear of being refused at the border can push visitors toward other countries, ultimately lowering bookings and overall arrivals.

Q7. Which parts of the U.S. travel industry are most vulnerable to a drop in ESTA travelers?
Large gateway states and cities that depend heavily on long-haul tourism, including places like California, Florida, New York, Nevada and Texas, are particularly exposed. Hotels, airlines, tour operators, theme parks, cultural venues and retail districts that cater to overseas visitors would feel the impact of fewer arrivals and lower spending most acutely.

Q8. Are there alternatives to tighter ESTA rules for improving security?
Travel industry groups and some policy experts argue that the U.S. could instead focus on better use of existing data, investments in advanced screening technology, improved inter-agency coordination and risk-based approaches that target higher-risk travelers. They contend that those measures can enhance security without introducing additional friction for the vast majority of low-risk visitors.

Q9. What can travelers do to protect their privacy if social media identifiers are requested?
If social media identifiers become part of the ESTA form, applicants will need to decide whether to provide requested information in line with any legal requirements. Privacy advocates suggest reviewing public profiles for accuracy and context, adjusting privacy settings as appropriate and avoiding deleting or altering posts solely out of fear of misinterpretation, as that can sometimes raise its own questions.

Q10. How should travelers plan upcoming trips to the U.S. amid these uncertainties?
Prospective visitors should apply for ESTA well in advance of travel, keep an eye on official government updates regarding any changes to the form, and consider flexible booking options that allow date changes or cancellations. Consulting experienced travel advisors, carefully completing all required fields and retaining documentation of approvals can help reduce the risk of disruptions as the policy debate continues.