Fresh arrival data from Statistics South Africa and policy commentary from Pretoria show Zimbabwe firmly entrenched as the number one source of international tourists to South Africa, putting clear daylight between it and other African markets such as Namibia, Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania and Botswana.

The momentum is redefining how the region thinks about intra-African travel and is helping drive South Africa’s tourism rebound toward record territory in the year ahead.

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Zimbabwe Consolidates Its Lead In South African Arrival Rankings

Zimbabwe’s role in South Africa’s tourism economy is no longer just significant, it is dominant. Official 2024 arrival figures released by South Africa’s government show that Zimbabwe delivered more than 2.18 million visitors to South Africa last year, a 3.6 percent rise on 2023 and comfortably the largest single inbound market to the country.

In a year that saw total international arrivals reach about 8.9 million, Zimbabwe alone accounted for roughly a quarter of all visitors, a share that no other African or overseas market comes close to matching.

The broader picture underlines just how central African travel has become to South Africa’s recovery story. Of the 8.9 million international tourist arrivals recorded in 2024, some 6.8 million came from the rest of the continent, equivalent to 76 percent of all visitors.

Within that continental cohort, Zimbabwe sits at the top of the table by a wide margin. Recent monthly data for January 2025 reinforces the trend, with Zimbabwe once again emerging as the single biggest contributor among Southern African Development Community states, sending more than 270,000 visitors in just one month.

The sustained growth from Zimbabwe is particularly striking when set against a slower overall recovery.

Analysts note that while total arrivals in 2024 were up just over 5 percent year on year, still leaving South Africa short of its 2019 peak, African land markets have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Zimbabwe is emblematic of that dynamic, having rebounded strongly after 2020 and maintaining its lead even as competitors such as Kenya and Tanzania draw record numbers to their own destinations.

Why Zimbabwe Is Outpacing Other African Source Markets

Several structural factors explain why Zimbabwe has stolen a march on Namibia, Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, Botswana and other African countries in feeding South Africa’s visitor growth. Geography and long-standing cross-border ties play an obvious role.

The two countries share one of the region’s busiest land borders, and millions of Zimbabweans have established family, business and educational links in South Africa over decades. That produces a steady base of repeat travel that is resilient to economic cycles and global shocks.

Cost is another decisive element. For many Zimbabwean travelers, especially those entering by road or bus, South Africa offers an accessible and relatively affordable international trip compared to long-haul options.

Cross-border shopping, medical tourism, educational visits and religious pilgrimages all form part of the traffic, supplementing purely leisure travel to South African beach, wildlife and urban attractions.

In contrast, visitors from East and North African hubs such as Kenya, Tanzania and Egypt are more reliant on air connections and face higher travel costs, limiting rapid volume growth at the scale seen from Zimbabwe.

Visa and border management regimes have also tilted the field in Zimbabwe’s favour. As South Africa has slowly moved to ease some visa hurdles and digitalise processes, its closest land neighbours have benefited first, simply because of the volume of low-cost, repeat travel that reacts quickly to marginal improvements.

Namibia and Botswana share similar advantages, but start from much smaller populations and do not command the sheer scale of cross-border movement that Zimbabwe generates.

Key markets further afield, such as Egypt or Kenya, remain constrained by longer routes, higher fares and, in some cases, lingering perceptions of complexity around South African entry requirements.

Policy Tailwinds And New Regional Partnerships

South African tourism officials are increasingly explicit about the central role of African markets in the country’s growth strategy, and recent policy moves have reinforced the trend that benefits Zimbabwe most.

Tourism Minister Patricia de Lille has repeatedly stressed that the continent is the “bedrock” of South Africa’s visitor economy, pointing to targeted marketing efforts, improved airlift and visa reforms as catalysts for growth.

While Ghana’s dramatic 149 percent surge in arrivals during 2024 has grabbed headlines thanks to a new visa waiver agreement, the underlying narrative is of a government intent on lowering barriers to African travel.

For Zimbabwe, that policy bias translates into incremental improvements at land borders, better coordination of festive-season traffic flows and investment in infrastructure that serves both trade and tourism.

Cross-border initiatives in the Victoria Falls region, where Zimbabwe, Zambia and South Africa market combined safari and adventure itineraries, have also deepened the travel ecosystem.

South African tour operators increasingly package Johannesburg or Cape Town with Victoria Falls and Hwange National Park, encouraging two-way flows that entrench the Zimbabwe–South Africa axis as a core corridor for regional tourism.

Beyond official policy, private-sector partnerships are amplifying the effect. Transport companies, hotel groups and retail operators in border towns and major South African cities have tailored products to Zimbabwean travelers, from lay-by shopping schemes to family-oriented package deals.

These measures, often underreported in national statistics, foster loyalty and repeat business. Countries such as Namibia and Botswana, with smaller outbound populations and less diversified service sectors, have not yet matched this combination of scale and specialization.

How Zimbabwe’s Demand Is Shaping South Africa’s Tourism Mix

Zimbabwe’s dominance as a source market is reshaping what tourism looks like on the ground in South Africa. Urban centres such as Johannesburg, Pretoria and Durban see large inflows of Zimbabwean visitors for shopping, healthcare and visiting family.

This has supported the recovery of city hotels, guest houses and transport operators that are still working their way back from pandemic lows. Retail and wholesale malls count Zimbabwean trade shoppers among their most important customer segments during peak seasons.

Leisure circuits are also feeling the impact. Bus tours, self-drive itineraries and regional coach services connecting Zimbabwe with key South African destinations have expanded, adding capacity for group travel to coastal resorts, theme parks and cultural attractions.

The safari sector is seeing more regional travelers incorporating South African game reserves into multi-country trips that begin or end in Zimbabwe.

For South African Tourism, the result is a more diversified demand base where African travelers, led by Zimbabweans, help fill gaps left by still-recovering long-haul markets.

This shift is strategically important at a time when analysts warn that South Africa’s overall recovery lags some of its continental rivals. Morocco, Tanzania and Kenya have either returned to or surpassed their pre-pandemic arrival numbers, underpinned by aggressive airline expansion and targeted investment.

For South Africa, where global competition is intense and aviation capacity remains uneven, the dependable inflow from Zimbabwe provides a buffer and a platform for further growth as 2025 unfolds.

Rival African Tourism Heavyweights Face Different Dynamics

While Zimbabwe leads in sending tourists to South Africa, many of the countries it now outpaces occupy powerful positions as destinations in their own right.

Kenya drew an estimated 3.5 million international visitors in 2024, powered by its safari circuit and Indian Ocean coast. Tanzania welcomed around 2.4 million, buoyed by demand for Mount Kilimanjaro, the Serengeti and the Zanzibar archipelago.

Egypt and Morocco have reasserted themselves as Mediterranean and Red Sea giants, with Egypt pushing to reclaim lost ground and Morocco topping African charts with more than 17 million arrivals.

These countries, however, are primarily focused on attracting long-haul visitors from Europe, Asia and North America. Their outbound tourism to South Africa is comparatively modest, shaped by distance, air capacity and competition from alternative destinations.

Namibian and Botswanan travelers, meanwhile, tend to gravitate toward domestic safaris and self-drive holidays or to cross borders for shopping and business in a narrower set of South African towns. None of these markets currently approach the scale or growth trajectory of Zimbabwe in feeding South Africa’s arrival statistics.

Economic conditions and currency movements also matter. Zimbabwe’s complex domestic economy has encouraged a steady outflow of shoppers, students and job seekers who use short-term visits to South Africa as a way to access goods, services and opportunities not always easily found at home.

That pattern, while rooted in hardship for many, feeds a robust travel corridor. By contrast, wealthier upper-middle income markets like Botswana and Namibia generate fewer high-frequency, budget-conscious trips, limiting their impact on South Africa’s aggregate arrival numbers even when per-visitor spending is higher.

Prospects For 2025: Record-Breaking Potential Driven By The North

Forecasters believe 2025 could be the year South Africa finally surpasses its 2019 visitor peak, and Zimbabwe is expected to be central to that scenario. Latest partial-year data for 2025 show foreign arrivals continuing to climb, with African markets again providing most of the incremental growth.

Within the Southern African bloc, Zimbabwe consistently tops monthly arrival charts, and there is little sign of that pattern changing in the short term.

Tourism economists point to several developments that could reinforce the trend in the months ahead. Ongoing digitalisation of visas for selected markets, improvements in road infrastructure and a renewed push by South African Tourism to market shopping, medical and education travel within Africa are all likely to resonate strongly in Zimbabwe.

Seasonal patterns also suggest that the Easter and year-end holiday periods in 2025 could bring new surges of cross-border movement, particularly if fuel prices and exchange rates remain relatively stable.

For South African policymakers, the challenge is to convert volume into value. While Zimbabwean arrivals underpin headline growth figures, average spend per trip often trails that of long-haul tourists from Europe or North America.

Efforts are therefore focused on encouraging longer stays, promoting multi-destination itineraries that combine city, coastal and wildlife experiences, and building new products around culture, events and sports that appeal to middle-class Zimbabwean visitors. If these efforts succeed, Zimbabwe’s leadership position in the statistics could translate into a proportionate boost in tourism revenue.

Risks, Bottlenecks And The Sustainability Question

Despite the upbeat numbers, there are also vulnerabilities that could disrupt the Zimbabwe driven surge. Border congestion at peak times routinely causes long delays for road travelers, generating frustration and occasional safety concerns.

Infrastructure at some land ports of entry is under strain, with customs and immigration facilities struggling to process high volumes smoothly. Persistent logistical bottlenecks risk dampening demand or pushing some travelers toward informal routes that do not show up in official tourism statistics.

Broader economic and political risks in the region could also affect flows. Job market pressures in South Africa, shifting regulations on informal cross-border trade and any tightening of domestic security or migration policies have the potential to slow or reshape travel patterns from Zimbabwe.

Regional aviation strategies may change the competitive landscape too, particularly if East African and North African hubs secure more direct long-haul flights that draw travelers away from using South Africa as a gateway.

At the same time, sustainability is emerging as a concern. Policymakers and industry stakeholders are debating how to manage growing volumes of regional road traffic while protecting the environment and ensuring that communities along popular corridors benefit equitably.

There is increasing interest in rail revitalisation, greener coach fleets and smarter border technology to reduce congestion and emissions. Zimbabwe’s central role in South Africa’s tourism expansion means that any long-term solution will have to be designed with this key market in mind.

FAQ

Q1. Why is Zimbabwe currently the largest source of tourists to South Africa?
Zimbabwe combines proximity, strong historical ties and a large population with high travel frequency to South Africa for shopping, healthcare, education, business and leisure. Affordable overland transport and relatively straightforward border procedures make South Africa the most accessible international destination for many Zimbabweans, driving volumes far above those of other African markets.

Q2. How far ahead is Zimbabwe of other African countries as a source market?
Recent official figures show Zimbabwe sending more than 2.18 million visitors to South Africa in 2024, far surpassing any other individual African market. While countries like Mozambique, Lesotho, Botswana and Namibia also contribute significant numbers, none reach the same scale, and more distant markets such as Kenya, Tanzania and Egypt trail by an even wider margin.

Q3. Does Zimbabwe’s dominance mean Kenya, Tanzania or Egypt are losing appeal?
Not as destinations in their own right. Kenya, Tanzania and Egypt each attract millions of international visitors, but their focus is on drawing long-haul tourists rather than sending travelers to South Africa. Zimbabwe’s leadership relates specifically to outbound travel into South Africa, rather than its position in the wider African tourism league table.

Q4. What role do visas and border policies play in this trend?
Visa rules and border management are crucial. South Africa has begun to streamline some entry processes and invest in infrastructure at key land borders, which benefits high-frequency overland markets like Zimbabwe the most. Where visa waivers or simplified regimes have been introduced for other African countries, such as Ghana, arrivals have jumped, suggesting that further easing could reinforce regional growth.

Q5. How is Zimbabwean travel changing the tourism experience inside South Africa?
Zimbabwean visitors are helping to sustain urban hotels, guest houses, retail centres and transport operators, especially in cities such as Johannesburg, Pretoria and Durban. They also support a growing network of bus, coach and self-drive routes to holiday destinations. This creates a more regionally balanced tourism mix, with African travelers filling gaps left by slower recovering long-haul segments.

Q6. Will South Africa likely break its pre-pandemic arrival record in 2025?
Analysts believe it is increasingly likely that South Africa will meet or surpass its 2019 peak in 2025, given current growth rates. Zimbabwe’s continued strength as a source market, combined with recovering long-haul travel and targeted marketing, is expected to be a major factor pushing overall arrivals to new highs.

Q7. Are visitors from Zimbabwe mainly leisure tourists?
No. While leisure travel is important, a substantial share of Zimbabwean arrivals are multipurpose trips. Visitors often combine shopping, family visits, medical appointments, religious events and business in a single journey. This diversified motivation base makes the flow more resilient than purely holiday-driven markets.

Q8. How does spending by Zimbabwean tourists compare with long-haul visitors?
On average, Zimbabwean visitors tend to spend less per trip than long-haul tourists from Europe or North America, who typically stay longer and book higher priced accommodation. However, the sheer volume and high frequency of Zimbabwean travel mean that their overall economic contribution to sectors such as retail, transport and budget accommodation is substantial.

Q9. What challenges could slow Zimbabwe’s contribution to South African tourism growth?
Key risks include congestion and delays at land borders, infrastructure bottlenecks, changes in migration or trade regulations, and economic instability that constrains disposable income. If these issues are not managed, they could make travel more difficult or costly, reducing the number of trips or pushing some activity into informal channels.

Q10. How can South Africa and Zimbabwe deepen tourism cooperation looking ahead?
Stronger cooperation could include joint marketing of multi-country itineraries, coordinated investment in border facilities, collaborative training for tourism and transport workers, and the development of cross-border events and festivals. By building on existing travel ties, both countries can increase visitor numbers, extend average stays and ensure that communities on both sides of the border benefit more evenly from tourism growth.