After months of falling ticket prices, U.S. airfares ticked up in July 2025, rising about 4% from the previous month.
This marks the first increase in half a year, a clear sign that the era of ultra-bargain flights is fading as airlines change course.
Carriers have begun trimming flight schedules to keep planes full, a strategy aimed at propping up fares and profit margins. For travelers, that means those truly rock-bottom ticket deals are getting harder to find once again.
Why Airfares Are Rising in 2025
Not long ago, flyers were enjoying unusually low fares. In fact, as recently as summer 2024, domestic airline tickets hit their cheapest levels in 15 years (outside of the pandemic shutdown period).
Airlines had flooded the market with seats to cater to surging travel demand, which led to intense price competition and widespread discounts. Budget-conscious travelers benefited from flash sales and $99 cross-country flights as carriers tried to fill up every plane.
What changed? Simply put, such dirt-cheap pricing turned out to be unsustainable. Airlines faced high fuel and labor costs, yet were selling many seats at a loss during the peak of the price wars. “The unprofitable capacity is just not sustainable,” one United Airlines executive warned as fares plunged.
By mid-2025, airline CEOs had seen enough red ink and began tapping the brakes on growth. Major carriers are now pulling back on seat capacity – and with supply tightening, fares are naturally firming up.
Airlines Are Cutting Capacity to Keep Planes Full
Several airlines have explicitly announced capacity cuts in response to weakening profits on low fares. Delta Air Lines, for example, said the industry would trim about 1% of domestic economy-class seats by September 2025.
Delta is pruning “unpopular trips” – think flights at odd hours or on slow midweek travel days – in order to pack more passengers into the remaining flights.
United Airlines likewise revealed it will slash its U.S. schedule by about 4% starting in July, cutting especially off-peak flights on low-demand days and even retiring some older planes ahead of schedule.
Even ultra-low-cost carriers are retrenching. Frontier Airlines’ CEO bluntly admitted that many domestic flights were “becoming unprofitable.” The airline is now targeting routes that routinely depart with lots of empty seats – midday and midweek flights, and service to smaller airports – for reduction.
In short, airlines large and small are dropping the extra sections and marginal routes that were propping up the seat count, all to consolidate travelers onto fewer flights. By keeping planes fuller, carriers regain some pricing power to charge viable fares instead of giving away seats.
This pullback is striking because it’s happening outside of a recessionary slump. “I’ve never seen that amount of capacity come out in a non-recessionary environment,” Delta’s President remarked of the unusual decision to cut flights despite decent travel demand.
But a softening in discretionary travel — plus the enduring appeal of premium cabins — has made airlines less willing to chase every last budget flyer.
In fact, Delta reported that its main cabin (economy) revenue fell 5% year-over-year last quarter, even as premium cabin revenues rose by a similar 5%. Faced with that trend, airlines would rather trim cheap seats than continue a race to the bottom on fares.
What It Means for Travelers
For passengers, the immediate impact of these capacity cuts is already noticeable. With fewer flights on the schedule, especially on traditionally quiet days, you might find limited departure choices for certain routes.
Some midsize city airports that once had two or three daily flights from a carrier may now see only one. And those once lightly booked Tuesday or late-night flights? They’re more likely to be axed or consolidated into busier time slots.
As industry analysts note, airlines have been focusing cuts “largely on early morning, late night and redeye trips and off-peak days” that tend to have lower demand.
The disappearance of extra flights means remaining planes are flying fuller. Average load factors (the percentage of seats filled) are climbing, so expect busier boarding areas and packed cabins.
In practical terms, the cheapest fare buckets are selling out faster because there are fewer total seats to go around. If you’re used to scoring last-minute deals, be aware that strategy may not work as well now – procrastinating could leave you paying a higher price or even finding your preferred flight sold out.
Travel experts warn that tighter seat supply could nudge prices up, particularly around peak periods. With less slack in the system, fare spikes for holidays and long weekends might be more common.
Already, fare indices show a modest uptick: July’s 4% increase in ticket prices came after months of year-over-year declines. Airlines are betting that by cutting the number of empty seats, they can avoid the steep discounts we saw last year. For travelers, it all adds up to fewer ultra-low deals and a need to be more proactive when planning trips.
How to Find Cheap Flights When Seats Shrink
The new reality of rising fares doesn’t mean affordable trips are gone for good. It does mean travelers must be savvier to snag deals. Here are some new rules for scoring cheap tickets in this tighter capacity environment:
- Book Earlier Than Before: With reduced schedules, the lowest fare tiers on each flight are snapped up quickly. Try to book your flights well in advance to lock in the cheapest seats before they sell out. The old advice of “wait for last-minute sales” is risky when planes are filling up sooner.
- Be Flexible: If you can be flexible, you’ll have a better chance at finding bargains. Consider alternate airports or travel dates to take advantage of any remaining off-peak pricing. For example, if nonstop flights from a major hub are pricey, see if flying from a secondary airport or adding a layover might save money. Likewise, flying a day earlier or later than everyone else (e.g. mid-week vs. weekend) can sometimes yield a lower fare – just remember airlines have cut some Tuesday/Wednesday flights, so compare options.
- Watch for Schedule Changes: With airlines frequently tweaking their timetables, keep an eye on your existing bookings. If the airline significantly changes or cancels your flight, you may be entitled to a free change or full refund – which you can then use to rebook on a cheaper or more convenient option. Use email or app alerts so you don’t miss notifications about schedule shifts. In a world of tighter capacity, a sudden cancellation could leave you scrambling, so have a backup plan for critical trips (such as knowing alternative flights or carriers on your route).
- Loyalty and Deals: This is a good time to cash in frequent-flyer miles or credit card points if cash fares are high. Also set fare alerts on price-tracking websites and follow airlines on social media – with fewer seats, sales aren’t as splashy as last year, but you might catch a limited-time deal or an error fare if you’re alert. When a decent fare pops up, act quickly; it likely won’t last long in today’s market.
- Travel Light and Unbundled: Ultra-low-cost carriers are still offering very cheap base fares on some routes, but they’ve pruned their schedules too. If you opt for a budget airline to save money, be prepared to travel light (to avoid hefty bag fees) and double-check your flight status as your trip approaches. Given Frontier’s recent cuts, for instance, make sure any connecting itineraries leave wiggle room in case one leg is rescheduled. Flexibility and minimal baggage can make it easier to switch plans if needed without incurring extra costs.
The days of widespread $50 cross-country flights appear to be behind us, at least for now.
Airlines have tightened their belts, and that means travelers need to adjust. By planning ahead, staying flexible, and taking advantage of loyalty perks, you can still find reasonable airfare – even if the absolute rock-bottom steals are fewer and farther between.
The landscape for cheap travel is changing, but a savvy, adaptable flyer can still jet off without breaking the bank.
