Tourists and residents across southern England and Wales are being urged to prepare for a spell of heavy rain, strong winds and potential disruption from Thursday, as a deep area of low pressure sweeps in across the region. Meteorologists warn that saturated ground following recent storms leaves communities particularly vulnerable to flooding, travel delays and power interruptions over the next 24 to 48 hours.

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Yellow Warnings Stretch Across Southern England and South Wales

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The Met Office has issued yellow weather warnings for heavy rain covering a large swathe of southern England and south Wales through Thursday, with forecasters cautioning that the combination of intense downpours and already waterlogged ground could lead to surface water flooding in multiple locations. The warning area includes much of south Wales, the South West, southern coastal counties and parts of central southern England, with conditions expected to deteriorate from the early hours of Thursday and persist through much of the day.

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Rainfall totals of 15 to 25 millimetres are widely expected across the warning zone, with 40 to 60 millimetres possible over higher ground such as Dartmoor, the hills of south Wales and the chalk Downs. In some of the most exposed upland locations, locally higher accumulations cannot be ruled out if bands of heavy rain become slow moving. With river levels already raised after a succession of unsettled days, the prospect of even moderate additional rainfall is enough to prompt renewed flood concerns.

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Alongside the rain alerts, separate yellow warnings for strong winds are in force for parts of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and sections of the Welsh coast, where gusts could reach 50 to 60 miles per hour, particularly in exposed coastal districts. While these wind speeds are below the most extreme storm thresholds, they come at a time when trees and infrastructure remain stressed by recent gales, increasing the chance of fallen branches and minor structural damage.

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Timing: When the Worst of the Weather Is Expected

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Current guidance indicates that the most disruptive conditions are likely from the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, January 15, 2026, running through late evening, as the low pressure system tracks northeast across England and Wales. Rain is forecast to arrive first in the far south west, including Cornwall and Devon, before spreading across south Wales and into southern and central England through the morning.

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By mid to late morning, much of southern England, from the Bristol Channel to the English Channel coast and inland towards the Midlands, can expect persistent rain, heavy at times, accompanied by increasingly gusty winds. The most intense downpours are likely over western hills and along windward coasts, where moisture-laden air is forced to rise, squeezing out higher rainfall totals over a relatively short period.

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Through the afternoon, the band of heaviest rain is expected to push slowly east and north east, gradually easing in the far south west even as showers and blustery conditions continue. Eastern and south eastern counties of England may see their heaviest rain later in the day, with showers and squally bursts lingering into the evening commute. Forecasters suggest that the risk of disruption should begin to lessen overnight into Friday as the system clears into the North Sea, although a return to sunshine and scattered showers rather than completely settled weather is anticipated.

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Travel Disruption Likely on Roads, Rail and at Key Gateways

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Transport operators are warning of potentially difficult conditions for those travelling on Thursday, particularly during the morning and evening peak periods. On the roads, surface water, standing water in dips and underpasses, and spray from other vehicles could significantly reduce visibility and increase stopping distances. Drivers using major routes such as the M4, M5, A30, A38 and key commuter corridors into Bristol, Cardiff, Exeter, Southampton and Portsmouth are being advised to allow extra time and to check for closures or delays before setting off.

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The rail network across southern England and Wales is also vulnerable to weather related disruption, with previous storms having demonstrated how quickly flooding, debris on the line and speed restrictions in high winds can lead to cancellations and extended journey times. Routes across south Wales, the Great Western main line between London and the South West, and regional lines serving coastal and rural communities may all be affected if conditions deteriorate as forecast.

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Air and ferry travel could face knock on impacts as well. Strong crosswinds and reduced visibility may trigger delays or diversions at airports including Bristol, Exeter, Cardiff and Southampton, although operators will aim to maintain schedules where it is safe to do so. Cross Channel and coastal ferry services are monitoring the situation closely, since periods of rough seas and strong gusts can necessitate altered timetables or, in some cases, short notice cancellations.

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Communities Still Recovering From Recent Storms Face Renewed Risk

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The latest bout of unsettled weather comes hard on the heels of Storm Goretti and other recent systems that brought damaging winds, snowfall in the north and widespread heavy rain to large parts of the United Kingdom. In southern England and Wales, rivers, streams and drainage systems have been running high for several days, and ground conditions are saturated in many rural and urban areas alike. This leaves the region particularly prone to renewed flooding even from rainfall totals that might normally be absorbed more easily.

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Environment agencies and local authorities have extended and updated flood watches and alerts along a number of rivers in south Wales, the Severn catchment and smaller coastal catchments in the South West and southern England. Low lying communities near rivers and estuaries, as well as properties in areas with a history of surface water flooding, are being advised to monitor official updates closely as Thursday approaches, and to move vehicles or valuables to higher ground where possible.

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For coastal towns along the Bristol Channel, south Wales coast and parts of the English Channel, forecasters note that the combination of strong onshore winds and high tides could lead to some wave overtopping and minor coastal flooding, particularly around exposed promenades and harbour areas. While current projections do not indicate a major coastal flooding event, the risk is heightened where sea defences or waterfront infrastructure have been weakened by the pounding of earlier winter storms.

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Advice for Tourists: Coastal Walks, Driving Tours and City Breaks

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The timing of the severe weather coincides with an increasingly busy year round tourism calendar in southern England and Wales, with visitors drawn to coastal paths, historic cities and countryside retreats even in midwinter. Authorities and tourism bodies are keen to stress that most trips can still go ahead, but that visitors need to adapt their plans, remain flexible and take official warnings seriously.

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Those planning coastal walks along the South West Coast Path, the Wales Coast Path or cliff top trails on the Isle of Wight and along the Jurassic Coast are being strongly advised to reconsider their itineraries during periods of strong winds and heavy rain. Slippery surfaces, reduced visibility, the risk of cliff falls and large waves mean that even experienced walkers could find themselves in dangerous situations. Where routes run close to cliff edges or exposed headlands, postponement until after the worst of the weather has passed is the safest option.

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Visitors embarking on scenic driving tours through Devon, Cornwall, the Brecon Beacons, the Wye Valley or the South Downs should check local travel advisories and be prepared for road closures or diversions. Single track lanes, fords and minor rural roads are particularly susceptible to flooding and falling branches, and satnav routes may not be updated quickly enough to reflect closures. Tourism agencies recommend sticking to main roads where possible, keeping fuel tanks topped up and carrying basic emergency supplies such as warm clothing, snacks, water and a charged phone.

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City break travellers to destinations such as Cardiff, Bristol, Bath, Exeter, Plymouth and Southampton may encounter little more than wet and windy conditions around hotel districts and tourist attractions, but they should still factor in possible delays to inbound and outbound transport. Indoor attractions, museums and historic sites may adjust opening hours if staff travel is affected or if safety checks are required following periods of high wind, so checking ahead on the morning of a visit is advised.

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What Residents Should Do to Prepare at Home

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Local councils and emergency planners are urging residents across the warning areas to use the lead time before Thursday’s peak to complete simple household preparations. Securing loose items in gardens, such as bins, outdoor furniture and decorations, can reduce the risk of damage or debris being blown into roads and windows. Homeowners are also encouraged to clear leaves and debris from gutters and drains where it is safe to do so, allowing rainwater to flow away more freely during heavy downpours.

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For households in known flood risk zones, the latest forecasts serve as a reminder to review flood plans, check the condition of flood gates or property level barriers and ensure that important documents, medicines and essential items are stored upstairs or in waterproof containers. Residents should also make a note of how to switch off gas, electricity and water supplies if necessary, and have torches, batteries and a portable radio to hand in case of power cuts.

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Authorities recommend checking on vulnerable neighbours, including older people, those with mobility issues and families with very young children, particularly if they live in isolated or low lying areas. Sharing information about local rest centres, community support groups and official information channels can help ensure that the most at risk residents are not left isolated should conditions worsen. Pet owners are reminded to bring animals indoors during the windiest periods and to ensure that livestock in rural areas have access to sheltered fields or barns.

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Safety On the Move: Practical Guidance for Drivers and Walkers

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With many people likely to be commuting or travelling while the weather warning is in effect, safety experts are offering practical guidance on how to stay safe while on the move. Motorists are advised to slow down, increase the distance from the vehicle in front and use dipped headlights in heavy rain or spray. Driving too fast into standing water can cause vehicles to aquaplane and lose grip, and even relatively shallow flood water can hide potholes or debris capable of damaging tyres and suspension.

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Authorities strongly advise against driving through flood water under any circumstances. It is often impossible to judge depth or current from the surface, and as little as 30 centimetres of moving water can be enough to float a car. If water is seen flowing rapidly across a road, the safest option is to turn back and seek an alternative route. For pedestrians, avoiding underpasses, riverside paths and low lying shortcuts is equally important, particularly after dark.

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Those out walking in strong winds are encouraged to steer clear of wooded areas where branches may fall, and to avoid standing close to walls, scaffolding or poorly maintained structures that could be destabilised by sudden gusts. Hikers should plan shorter routes, inform someone of their expected return time and carry appropriate all weather clothing. On exposed hills and moorland, wind chill can make temperatures feel much lower than forecast, so multiple layers, waterproof outerwear and sturdy footwear are essential.

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Forecasters Urge Vigilance as Unsettled Pattern Continues

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Met Office meteorologists emphasise that, while the upcoming event is not currently expected to match the severity of the most powerful UK storms of recent years, the context of already saturated ground and the cumulative impacts of successive low pressure systems raise the stakes for communities in southern England and Wales. Even yellow warnings can result in serious localised impacts when the atmosphere is primed for flooding and infrastructure is under strain.

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Residents and visitors alike are being urged to follow updates from official forecast providers, local councils and emergency services over the next two days, as warning areas and timings may be adjusted in response to the latest data. Checking forecasts regularly, heeding any instructions from authorities and adjusting travel and leisure plans accordingly will be key to reducing risk.

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With the broader pattern remaining unsettled as January progresses, meteorologists indicate that further spells of wet and windy weather are likely in the coming weeks. For now, Thursday’s heavy rain and strong winds across southern England and Wales stand out as a clear prompt for tourists and residents to stay weather aware, prepare sensibly and prioritise safety as the next Atlantic system moves in.