EU rail climate resilience lags as ERA warns on planning

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Europe’s railways, widely promoted as a cornerstone of low carbon travel, are not keeping pace with the realities of a warming planet, with a new assessment from the European Union Agency for Railways indicating that only 37 percent of infrastructure managers currently use climate projections when designing new assets.

A first EU-wide snapshot of climate risk on the rails

The finding comes from the Rail Resilience to Climate Change report, a first comprehensive look at how extreme weather is already affecting tracks, signalling and other assets across the European network. Prepared at the request of the European Commission and published at the end of March 2026, the study compiles incident data and survey responses from infrastructure managers in almost all EU member states, along with the United Kingdom’s Network Rail.

According to the report, a large majority of managers surveyed have experienced infrastructure damage or operational disruption from hazards such as heatwaves, floods, storms and landslides in recent years. The assessment highlights that events once considered exceptional are now recurring with greater frequency, straining maintenance budgets and timetables.

Despite that experience, only just over a third of the organisations surveyed said they systematically draw on long term climate projections or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios when designing new lines, bridges or signalling systems. Many still rely primarily on historical weather records, even as those baselines become less representative of future conditions.

The agency frames the report as a starting point for bringing climate resilience into the EU rail regulatory framework, rather than a one off exercise. It proposes using the findings to update technical standards and safety rules in the coming years, with the goal of avoiding costly retrofits or failures later in the life of rail assets.

Why climate projections matter for new rail assets

At the heart of the new assessment is a concern that infrastructure being built today may not be fit for service over its intended lifespan if future conditions are not properly factored in. Tracks are typically designed to operate safely within a defined temperature range, bridges and embankments are sized for certain flood levels, and overhead lines must withstand expected wind loads and icing.

Climate projections allow engineers to anticipate how those parameters could shift by mid century or beyond, taking into account scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and regional climate responses. Without those inputs, the risk grows that rails will buckle more often under extreme heat, that drainage systems will be overwhelmed by intense downpours, or that coastal and riverside assets will face more frequent inundation.

The agency’s survey suggests that some leading infrastructure managers are already integrating such projections into design codes or project specifications, often with support from national meteorological services or academic partners. Others report using them only in particularly exposed locations, or not at all, citing limited internal expertise, competing investment pressures and uncertainty over which scenarios to adopt.

For travellers, the consequences are felt not only when infrastructure fails, but also through increasingly frequent speed restrictions and service suspensions imposed as precautionary measures during heatwaves or storms. The report underlines that designing for a changing climate can reduce long term disruption and costs, even if it implies higher upfront spending.

Legal gaps and policy proposals emerging from the ERA study

The Rail Resilience to Climate Change report goes beyond diagnostics to set out six proposals to strengthen the EU legal framework on climate adaptation for rail. The agency points in particular to gaps in existing Technical Specifications for Interoperability, which set common rules for the design and operation of infrastructure and rolling stock across the Single European Railway Area.

Current specifications were largely drafted using historic climate parameters, and often leave wide discretion to national authorities or individual managers on how to account for future conditions. The new study suggests embedding requirements to use climate projections into these common rules, while still allowing flexibility in how member states implement them.

The report also identifies a need for clearer responsibilities and coordination between transport and climate policy at EU level. Public information indicates that the findings are being fed into wider work on a European climate resilience and risk management framework, which aims to align sectoral adaptation plans with the bloc’s 2050 climate neutrality target.

In parallel, the agency calls for improved monitoring and reporting of weather related incidents on the rail network. Standardised data on delays, damage and repair costs linked to climate hazards would help quantify the benefits of adaptation measures and guide the allocation of EU and national funding.

Implications for Europe’s green travel ambitions

The timing of the ERA report is sensitive, as European institutions are promoting rail travel as a primary tool for cutting emissions from transport, especially on short and medium haul routes that compete directly with aviation. Rail already accounts for a small share of transport greenhouse gas emissions relative to road and air, and substantial investment is planned in high speed links and cross border corridors.

Analysts note that climate resilience is now an essential part of that growth agenda. If extreme heat or flooding regularly forces the cancellation of services on flagship routes, it could undermine both public confidence and the environmental case for shifting from planes and cars to trains. Conversely, well adapted infrastructure can reinforce rail’s reputation as a reliable backbone of low carbon mobility.

Publicly available documents from the European Commission emphasise that climate adaptation and mitigation must advance together. This means that funding instruments designed to support rail expansion, from European Investment Bank lending to dedicated EU transport budgets, are likely to place increasing weight on how projects address long term climate risk.

For travellers, the debate may feel distant from everyday booking decisions, but it is shaping the reliability and comfort of future journeys. Choices made today about how tracks, tunnels and stations are designed could determine whether high speed links remain usable during heatwaves, or whether sleeper services can continue to operate through more violent winter storms.

Next steps for rail managers and policymakers

The ERA assessment concludes with a call for closer cooperation between infrastructure managers, regulators, climate scientists and the rail supply industry. One of its recommendations is to develop shared tools and guidance that make it easier to translate complex climate models into practical design criteria and maintenance strategies.

Some networks have already begun piloting such approaches, using dynamic speed management tied to real time weather data, or trialling new materials for ballast and catenary systems that can tolerate higher temperatures. However, the report suggests that these efforts remain fragmented and that knowledge sharing across borders is limited.

As member states update their national climate adaptation plans and transport strategies over the next few years, observers expect the low use of climate projections highlighted by the ERA to become a benchmark for progress. Infrastructure managers that move quickly to integrate future conditions into their investment decisions may be better positioned to access EU funds and to avoid unexpected performance problems later on.

For now, the 37 percent figure serves as a warning that Europe’s rail system, despite its reputation as a climate friendly mode, is still early in its own adaptation journey. Turning that around will be crucial if the continent’s trains are to remain both green and resilient as temperatures and weather extremes continue to rise.