EU airport delays predicted to drag on for at least two years

Travellers heading to Europe this year are being warned to brace for long queues and persistent flight disruption, as industry forecasts suggest delays at EU airports may not stabilise for at least two years.

Border technology rollout collides with peak travel

Airports across the European Union are contending with a difficult combination of record passenger numbers and the phased rollout of the bloc’s new Entry/Exit System, a biometric border database for non-EU nationals. Publicly available information indicates that the system, which records fingerprints and facial scans at the border, is already generating significantly longer processing times at passport control.

Airport and airline groups have reported that at some hubs, registering first-time visitors in the new system can push waiting times toward two hours even in the early months of 2026. At Brussels, Frankfurt and major Italian airports including Milan Malpensa and Turin, trade bodies describe mounting queues at both peak and off-peak periods as staff adjust to the new checks.

Industry associations representing European airports and airlines have urged EU institutions and member states to keep flexibility measures in place over the 2026 summer season, warning that without temporary relief the simultaneous pressures of peak holiday traffic and biometric registration could produce what they describe as a risk of “major paralysis” at some border checkpoints.

Separate coverage of recent holiday periods shows that these concerns are materialising in real time, with reports of queues of up to two hours at passport control in popular leisure destinations as early-season travellers collide with new procedures.

Warnings that disruption may last beyond 2027

Travel organisations and aviation analysts now caution that the strain may not be short-lived. Commentary from European airport and airline groups suggests that it could take up to two years for border operations to fully adapt to the Entry/Exit System and for authorities to refine staffing, infrastructure and passenger flows around the new technology.

Calls from industry for the option to suspend or scale back the biometric checks during peak months highlight expectations that the most acute disruption is likely to recur during the high-demand summer seasons of 2026 and 2027. Even if those requests are only partially granted, observers anticipate intermittent bottlenecks at land and air borders until the majority of returning travellers have completed their initial biometric enrolment.

At the same time, policy documents from EU institutions emphasise that the new border regime is intended as a long-term security and migration management tool. That means authorities are focused on adjusting capacity and processes rather than reversing the system entirely, reinforcing the likelihood that travellers will continue to experience some level of screening-related delay over multiple summer periods.

For passengers, the practical effect is that the first wave of delays seen in early 2026 is unlikely to be a one-off event. Travel planners expect that queuing times will fluctuate across airports and seasons, but that a clear, system-wide stabilisation may not be visible before the late 2020s.

Air traffic control and staffing gaps add another layer

Beyond border checks, the wider European aviation network continues to grapple with structural capacity constraints in its air traffic management system. Data from Eurocontrol, the pan-European air traffic coordinator, show that overall flight numbers in Europe have returned to or slightly exceeded pre-pandemic levels, while average delay minutes per flight remain above the network’s punctuality targets.

Reports from Eurocontrol and the International Air Transport Association highlight a persistent shortfall in air traffic control capacity in several regions, citing a combination of staffing shortages, sector congestion and slow progress on modernising airspace management. Capacity-related disruptions and staffing-linked delays have risen sharply compared with a decade ago, even though traffic growth over the same period has been far more modest.

Seasonal analysis indicates that a disproportionate share of delay minutes occurs in July and August, when leisure travel peaks. This pattern suggests that the network struggles to scale up effectively during the busiest weeks, compounding the risk of missed connections and late arrivals when local weather, industrial action or technical issues occur.

Eurocontrol’s most recent overviews note some improvement compared with earlier summers, with targeted operational plans and closer coordination between air navigation service providers helping to contain delays in certain regions. However, the organisation also underlines that overall performance is still falling short of agreed EU targets and that more investment is needed to unlock sustainable capacity gains.

EU explores long-term fixes as summer pressure builds

Against this backdrop, EU institutions are working on parallel tracks to address both border congestion and airborne delays. On the air traffic side, the Single European Sky reform agenda remains central, with the European Commission promoting new legislation and technical programmes designed to make better use of existing airspace, increase cross-border cooperation and cut reactionary delays.

Recent meetings between EU transport officials and aviation stakeholders have focused on ensuring sufficient air traffic management capacity to handle dense traffic in coming summers, while also improving environmental performance. The discussions highlight recognition in Brussels that without meaningful gains in efficiency and staffing, passengers will continue to bear the brunt of network fragility during peak periods.

In parallel, lawmakers are revisiting passenger rights rules covering delays and cancellations, including proposals to clarify compensation thresholds and obligations for airlines during disruption. Parliamentary documents indicate that negotiations on revised rules have been moving slowly, but political agreement among EU governments has opened the way for renewed talks, with consumer groups pushing for stronger protections.

For border operations, airport and airline associations are pressing for more flexible implementation of the Entry/Exit System, especially during the transition phase. Suggestions include staggered rollouts, targeted suspensions at the busiest crossing points and greater use of pre-registration tools where feasible, in an effort to smooth demand and avoid hours-long queues at peak times.

What travellers can realistically expect this summer

For passengers flying to or within Europe in 2026, the immediate outlook points to continued pockets of severe congestion rather than blanket chaos across the continent. Eurocontrol forecasts a high volume of flights throughout the summer, and punctuality statistics from recent seasons show that many services still depart and arrive close to schedule.

However, the combination of evolving border checks, tight airport staffing and constrained air traffic control capacity means that delays are likely to be uneven and, at times, abrupt. Travellers may encounter relatively smooth experiences at one airport and multi-hour queues at another on the same itinerary, particularly when arriving from outside the EU or changing planes during busy weekend peaks.

Travel experts advise allowing more time than usual at departure and arrival airports, especially for first-time non-EU visitors who must complete full biometric registration, families travelling with children and passengers connecting through busy hubs. Early-morning flights are often recommended, as network data show that reactionary delays accumulate throughout the day, making evening departures more vulnerable to knock-on disruption.

With no rapid fix in sight, industry bodies and planning documents suggest that the most realistic scenario is a gradual easing of bottlenecks as infrastructure upgrades, staffing increases and operational reforms take effect over several seasons. Until then, travellers are being urged to build extra time into their journeys and to prepare for the possibility that EU airport delays will remain a defining feature of European travel for at least the next two years.