Brazil And Beyond: Travel Faces Rising Climate Risks

Brazil’s struggle to protect its vast natural landscapes in the face of El Niño disruptions, extreme weather and deforestation is increasingly mirrored across the globe, raising urgent questions for countries that rely on nature to anchor their tourism economies.

Natural Icons Under Pressure in Brazil and Worldwide

Recent assessments of land-use change indicate that Brazil’s natural landscapes, from the Amazon rainforest to the Cerrado savanna, are under intensifying stress, even as deforestation rates show short-term improvements in some regions. Analysts note that repeated droughts, record-breaking heat and fire seasons linked to the 2023–2024 El Niño event have weakened ecosystems already fragmented by decades of agricultural expansion and infrastructure development. Shrinking habitat and rising temperatures are combining to heighten the risk of more frequent and severe fire outbreaks, particularly in drier biomes such as the Cerrado and Pantanal.

Brazil’s experience is far from unique. Research released over the past two years points to a continuous decline in the ability of tropical forests to absorb carbon during major El Niño events, with the Amazon, central Africa and Southeast Asia accounting for the majority of the recent land-based carbon flux anomalies. As forests lose resilience, their role as climate stabilizers and biodiversity refuges is diminished, increasing the likelihood of disruptive feedbacks for regional weather and, by extension, for travel conditions.

For the travel sector, these changes are not abstract. Iconic landscapes that support nature-based tourism, river cruising and wildlife observation are experiencing longer dry seasons, more erratic rainfall and higher wildfire risk. These trends are beginning to alter when and where visitors can safely access remote conservation areas, and they are raising questions about the long-term viability of some classic itineraries built around predictable seasonal patterns.

El Niño’s Global Footprint on Weather and Mobility

The strong 2023–2024 El Niño underscored how swiftly the climate phenomenon can reshape travel conditions across regions. Climate monitoring agencies report that shifting sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific contributed to record global heat, severe drought in parts of South America and southern Africa, and intense rainfall and flooding in East Africa and sections of North America. In Latin America and the Caribbean, assessments by regional and United Nations bodies describe a year marked by crop losses, strained water supplies and an uptick in climate-related disasters.

As El Niño amplified heat and disrupted rainfall, river levels in parts of the Brazilian and Peruvian Amazon fell sharply, limiting boat traffic to isolated communities and reducing access to remote lodges at the height of the high season. Elsewhere in South America, hydropower-dependent countries grappled with low reservoir levels, raising the risk of blackouts and water restrictions in urban hubs that serve as gateways for international visitors.

In parallel, the same El Niño cycle brought above-average rainfall to eastern equatorial Africa and the southern United States, contributing to dangerous flooding episodes. In East Africa, torrential rains and swollen rivers damaged roads and bridges, cutting access to wildlife reserves and coastal resorts for weeks at a time. Farther east, parts of Southeast Asia faced a succession of heatwaves and dry spells that contributed to wildfire alerts and health advisories, complicating peak-season travel planning in popular beach and mountain destinations.

These disruptions highlight how travel itineraries that span multiple climate zones are becoming more exposed to the timing and intensity of El Niño and La Niña phases. Long-haul trips that once relied on relatively stable seasonal expectations increasingly require flexible routing, contingency days and close monitoring of regional climate outlooks.

From Forest Loss to Floods: Destinations on the Front Line

Beyond Brazil, several major tourism destinations are contending with rapidly shrinking natural spaces and escalating climate extremes. In Southeast Asia, recurring El Niño events are associated with hotter, drier conditions and elevated fire risk in parts of Indonesia and Malaysia, where peatland and forest fires can blanket entire regions in smoke, disrupting flights and deterring visitors. At the same time, low river levels along important inland waterways can constrain river-cruise operations and limit access to rural homestays that depend on seasonal boat traffic.

In southern Africa, recent El Niño-linked droughts have reduced crop yields and stressed water supplies in countries such as Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi. While flagship safari areas still attract visitors, park authorities and conservation organizations report increasing pressure on wildlife and local communities as grazing lands and waterholes shrink. Prolonged drought can force wildlife to cluster around remaining water sources, altering viewing patterns but also raising concerns about animal health and human-wildlife conflict near park boundaries.

Conversely, East Africa has been experiencing more frequent episodes of intense rainfall in association with ocean-atmosphere patterns that include El Niño. Floods in parts of Kenya and Tanzania in 2024 damaged transport infrastructure, affected communities around key parks and reserves, and highlighted how both drought and sudden deluges can undermine tourism-dependent economies. In South Asia and Southeast Asia, a series of severe floods during the 2024–2025 season closed airports, inundated coastal resorts and triggered evacuations across multiple countries, reinforcing perceptions of climate volatility in the region.

Island and coastal destinations are also on the front line as sea-level rise, stronger storms and coastal erosion intersect with El Niño and La Niña cycles. Beach loss, degraded coral reefs and repeated storm damage are emerging as central business risks for resorts that built their brands on pristine shorelines and calm tropical conditions.

Growing Risks for Nature-Based Tourism Economies

Nature-based tourism has emerged over the past two decades as a key economic engine for many developing countries, promising low-impact growth while incentivizing conservation. However, studies examining the interaction between international tourism and biodiversity now warn that without careful management, higher visitor numbers can exacerbate pressures on already stressed ecosystems, from trail erosion and wildlife disturbance to increased demand for land and resources near protected areas.

As climate extremes intensify, these pressures are colliding. In Brazil, for example, prolonged drought, heatwaves and fire events in the Amazon and Cerrado have periodically forced operators to cancel excursions, close trails and adjust river itineraries. Similar patterns are being reported from mountain destinations in the Andes and Himalayas, where glacier retreat, unstable slopes and shifting snow lines are changing traditional trekking and skiing seasons.

For countries that market themselves as eco-tourism havens, reputational risk is also growing. Images of smoke-choked skies, flooded heritage districts or closed national parks circulate rapidly, influencing traveler perceptions and booking behavior. Insurance costs for tourism operators are rising in many high-risk regions, while some investors are beginning to factor climate exposure into decisions about new lodges, marinas and transport infrastructure.

These dynamics suggest that the economic case for conserving remaining natural landscapes is becoming inseparable from the case for climate adaptation. Destinations that maintain intact forests, wetlands and mangroves often gain natural buffers against storms, floods and heat, enhancing both visitor safety and the long-term appeal of their landscapes.

How Destinations Are Adapting to a Hotter, Less Predictable Future

In response to these mounting risks, a growing number of countries are incorporating climate and disaster considerations into tourism planning. Publicly available strategies in Latin America, Africa and Asia call for diversifying tourism offerings across regions and seasons to avoid over-reliance on areas that are highly exposed to drought, floods or fires. Some national parks are investing in upgraded trails, fire breaks and water infrastructure, while coastal resorts experiment with set-back lines, dune restoration and elevated structures to cope with storm surge and inundation.

Brazil and several of its regional peers are also expanding early-warning systems and climate services that can inform tourism operators and travelers in near real time. Seasonal forecasts linked to El Niño and La Niña outlooks are increasingly used to guide decisions on product launches, marketing campaigns and capacity planning. In parts of southern Africa and Central America, initiatives supported by international agencies aim to provide anticipatory assistance to communities so that they can better withstand climate shocks that might otherwise disrupt tourism supply chains.

At the same time, conservation and tourism groups are promoting more climate-conscious travel behavior, encouraging visitors to choose operators that invest in ecosystem restoration, low-impact transport and community resilience. While these steps cannot fully offset the scale of climate change now locked into the global system, they point toward a model of tourism that recognizes shrinking natural landscapes and more extreme weather as central strategic concerns rather than peripheral environmental issues.

From Brazil’s forests and wetlands to the savannas of southern Africa and the coasts of Southeast Asia, the interplay between El Niño cycles, long-term warming and land-use change is reshaping the geography of risk. For travelers and destinations alike, the challenge is no longer whether climate will influence where and when to go, but how quickly the industry can adapt to a world where volatility is the new normal.