Dutch Railways Stand Firm on €600m CAF Double-Deck Trains

The Dutch national rail operator NS is pressing ahead with a €600 million order for new double-deck intercity trains from Spanish manufacturer CAF, reaffirming its commitment to the controversial fleet even as scrutiny intensifies over costs, capacity needs and competition policy.

A flagship CAF contract under the microscope

The CAF contract, signed in December 2022, covers 60 new double-deck electric multiple units intended to renew and expand NS’s intercity fleet. Publicly available information from CAF and specialist rail publications indicates that the deal includes 30 four-car and 30 six-car trainsets based on the Civity platform, adapted into a new double-deck design for the Dutch network. The investment is valued at more than €600 million, with options that could lift the total further as NS replaces older rolling stock.

The trains, internally designated DDNG, are planned to enter service from 2028 as successors to the ageing DDZ double-deck fleet. Technical outlines show that they form part of CAF’s wider push in the Dutch market, where the manufacturer has already supplied more than 200 single-deck Sprinter New Generation commuter units, as well as regional stock for other operators. The new order is seen as a strategic anchor for CAF in northwestern Europe.

Although the framework was agreed before the latest economic pressures on passenger rail, the scale of the commitment has continued to draw attention in the Netherlands, where NS remains state-owned and heavily dependent on public policy decisions over infrastructure, fares and service levels.

Capacity needs collide with shifting travel patterns

The choice of double-deck trains reflects NS’s expectation of long-term growth in intercity demand on the country’s busiest main lines. Double-deck stock allows more seats within constrained platform lengths on corridors such as Amsterdam to Eindhoven and the Randstad routes, a priority in a compact country where adding tracks and extending stations is costly and disruptive.

However, ridership trends since the pandemic have become less predictable. NS financial disclosures and domestic media coverage in 2025 highlighted ongoing losses and experiments with more flexible timetables, particularly on quieter days such as Fridays, when remote working has reduced peak commuting flows. This has led to public debate over whether existing capacity could be managed more efficiently rather than expanded with a large new fleet order.

Transport economists note that rolling stock investments are inherently long-term and must be judged over decades rather than individual financial years. The new CAF trains are expected to remain in service well into the 2050s, a time horizon during which population growth, urban densification and climate targets are all projected to increase rail’s role in Dutch mobility. Against that backdrop, NS appears to be prioritising resilience and comfort over short-term cost savings.

NS doubles down as CAF strengthens its Dutch presence

The double-deck order builds on a long-running commercial relationship between NS and CAF. Since 2014, the Spanish group has secured successive contracts in the Netherlands, starting with Civity commuter trains and expanding into both regional and intercity markets. Company reports describe the combined value of NS-related projects and options as running into the high hundreds of millions of euros, making the Dutch network one of CAF’s key European platforms.

For NS, sticking with CAF for the new intercity fleet offers continuity in maintenance, training and spare parts across different train types derived from the same platform. Industry analysts point out that this can reduce lifecycle costs and simplify depot operations, particularly when compared with operating a highly fragmented fleet from multiple manufacturers.

At the same time, the decision aligns NS with a supplier that is pushing digital technologies such as advanced train control and, in some markets, automatic train operation. CAF materials and European rail briefings highlight trials of these systems with Dutch operators, aimed at improving punctuality, cutting energy use and squeezing more capacity from existing infrastructure. The new double-deck trains are expected to be equipped to operate with evolving signalling standards on the Dutch core network.

Competitive and political pressures in the background

The persistence of the CAF intercity programme comes as the broader Dutch rail framework faces scrutiny from European institutions and domestic courts. The concession for NS to operate the main railway network from 2025 to 2033 was awarded directly, without a competitive tender, a move that has triggered challenges from rival operators and closer attention from the European Commission.

Debates over the concession have inevitably drawn rolling stock plans into the conversation, with questions raised in political fora about how large fleet orders interact with future market opening. Legal rulings and government correspondence indicate that the state expects NS to continue investing in trains and stations under the current concession, while also making arrangements that would allow assets to be transferred or shared if the network is later divided or partially tendered.

In this context, the CAF double-deck project is being watched as a test of how long-term investment decisions made under a direct award will shape competition down the line. Analysts suggest that clearly defined rules on access to rolling stock, leasing structures and depreciation will be important to ensure that the new trains do not become a barrier for potential future entrants to mainline intercity routes.

From design phase to delivery on a tight timeline

While NS is not retreating from the CAF deal, the practical challenge now lies in turning the design into reliable service on a demanding, high-frequency network. Public information from CAF and rail-sector bulletins indicates that the trains are currently in detailed engineering and manufacturing preparation, with the first sets expected to be tested in the Netherlands before the planned 2028 introduction.

Developing a bespoke double-deck variant of the Civity platform for intensive intercity use places pressure on both manufacturer and operator to validate everything from passenger flows and accessibility to compatibility with existing platforms and depots. Recent experience across Europe has shown that new fleets can encounter teething issues if software integration, maintenance planning or driver training are compressed.

Despite these risks, NS has signalled in its public reporting that rolling stock renewal remains central to its strategy to improve reliability, reduce lifecycle costs and meet national climate targets. The CAF double-deck trains are positioned as a cornerstone of that renewal. For now, the Dutch operator shows no sign of stepping back from the €600 million commitment, betting that the trains will arrive on time and deliver the capacity and comfort that its busy intercity corridors are expected to require for decades to come.