How Turkish Airlines Pulled Ahead of British Airways

Turkish Airlines has quietly become one of the world’s largest network carriers by passenger volume, now transporting roughly twice as many travelers as British Airways, according to industry rankings and company disclosures. The shift reflects profound changes in global aviation as traffic patterns tilt eastward, long haul demand rebounds, and Gulf and Eurasian hubs erode the dominance of traditional Western European flag carriers.

A Numbers Gap That Has Widended Since the Pandemic

Industry passenger rankings compiled from schedules and capacity data show Turkish Airlines sitting firmly in the top tier of global carriers by traffic, while British Airways has slipped into the second rank of full service airlines. Data from OAG and other aviation analytics providers for 2023 and early 2024 place Turkish Airlines significantly ahead of British Airways in available seat capacity and annual passenger counts, indicating that the Turkish flag carrier now carries around twice as many passengers as its UK rival on an annual basis.

The divergence accelerated after the pandemic. Turkish Airlines restored and then expanded its network faster than many competitors, returning capacity to key long haul markets while also rebuilding short haul links across Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. British Airways, by contrast, has taken a more cautious approach, constrained by airport slot limits, staffing challenges and a focus on yield over volume from its London Heathrow base.

Analysts point out that both airlines have grown in absolute terms since the crisis, but Turkish Airlines has grown faster from a smaller pre pandemic base. It has done so by leaning into a model that prioritises volume and connectivity, even on thin routes, while British Airways has focused more heavily on premium traffic and core business markets from London.

Public financial reports suggest that Turkish Airlines’ larger passenger base has not come at the expense of profitability. The carrier has reported strong operating margins since 2022, helped by robust demand for connecting itineraries and a broader recovery in inbound tourism to Turkey, while British Airways’ parent IAG has emphasised a gradual rebuild of capacity, partly to protect yields.

Istanbul’s Geography and the Rise of the Eurasian Hub

A central factor in Turkish Airlines’ outperformance is the geographic advantage of Istanbul. Sitting at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, Istanbul allows the airline to connect city pairs that would otherwise lack nonstop demand, turning the city into a natural transit point for traffic between Europe and South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and parts of the Far East.

The opening of the new Istanbul Airport in 2019 gave the airline a purpose built megahub with significant room to grow. Industry coverage notes that Istanbul has quickly climbed the rankings of the world’s busiest international airports, with tens of millions of international passengers passing through annually and transfer traffic representing a large share of total volumes.

By contrast, British Airways’ main base at London Heathrow is operating near capacity, with limited scope for substantial increases in movements before long discussed expansion materialises. Heathrow’s position on the western edge of Europe is ideal for transatlantic services but less efficient for many flows between Europe and Asia, where Gulf and Turkish hubs often offer shorter total journey times or more convenient connections.

This geographic reality has enabled Turkish Airlines to build a dense web of connections from secondary European cities to destinations across the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia and Africa, using Istanbul as the single transfer point. British Airways competes in some of these flows via London, but faces stronger competition from Gulf carriers and must manage congested airspace and airport constraints.

Network Strategy: Many Destinations, Many Frequencies

Turkish Airlines has pursued a network strategy built around serving more destinations than most of its global peers, including an emphasis on secondary and tertiary cities. Public route maps show the airline flying to well over 300 destinations across more than 120 countries, with an especially wide footprint in Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East. This breadth pulls large volumes of passengers into its hub, even when individual routes are relatively small.

In Africa, for example, Turkish Airlines has opened routes to dozens of cities that remain unserved or underserved by European legacy carriers. Similar patterns can be seen in Central Asia and the Caucasus, where the Turkish carrier leveraged cultural and economic ties to open markets earlier than many rivals. Each new destination adds to the connectivity of the hub, supporting higher transfer volumes and more efficient aircraft utilisation.

British Airways, in contrast, has streamlined its route network over the past decade, focusing on high yielding long haul destinations in North America and select markets in Asia, as well as core European business routes. It has reduced exposure to smaller and more volatile markets, particularly in parts of Africa and Asia, sometimes relying on partner airlines within the oneworld alliance to provide connectivity instead of operating its own metal.

This difference in network philosophy translates directly into passenger counts. Turkish Airlines’ model is designed to maximise overall volume, capturing both price sensitive leisure travellers and higher yielding segments through sheer breadth of service. British Airways, while still a major global carrier, accepts a smaller volume of passengers in exchange for concentrating on routes and cabins that support its premium brand positioning.

Fleet Choices and Cost Structure

Fleet composition and cost structure also help explain how Turkish Airlines has outgrown British Airways in passenger terms. Turkish Airlines operates a large mixed fleet of narrowbody and widebody aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, including high density configurations on many medium haul routes. This allows the airline to carry more passengers per flight while keeping unit costs relatively low.

Industry analysis indicates that Turkish Airlines benefits from cost advantages in areas such as labour and airport charges relative to Western European peers. Operating from Turkey, where costs are generally lower than in the United Kingdom, the airline can profitably sell tickets at price points that are competitive with low cost carriers on some routes and still attractive to connecting passengers who might otherwise choose Gulf or European competitors.

British Airways, operating primarily from London with its high airport fees and wage levels, faces a structurally higher cost base. While it has taken steps to improve productivity and modernise its fleet with more fuel efficient aircraft, its cost per available seat kilometre remains above that of Turkish Airlines, according to industry benchmarking. This encourages BA to focus on higher yielding premium cabins and corporate contracts rather than pursuing maximum volume.

The difference in cost structures has knock on effects on cabin layouts and pricing. Turkish Airlines can maintain competitive fares in economy cabins and invest in product upgrades, such as improved onboard catering and refurbished cabins, while still filling large numbers of seats. British Airways has also invested in premium products, but is more constrained in how far it can cut fares without eroding margins.

Tourism, Transfer Traffic and Future Risks

Turkey’s growing profile as an international tourism destination has further boosted Turkish Airlines’ passenger numbers. Industry and government tourism statistics indicate that foreign arrivals to Turkey have rebounded strongly since 2022, reaching and in some months exceeding pre pandemic levels. Many of these visitors arrive on Turkish Airlines flights from Europe, the Middle East and Russia, contributing to high seat occupancy on routes into Istanbul and coastal resort gateways.

At the same time, transfer traffic continues to be a central pillar of the airline’s strategy. A sizable share of passengers never leave Istanbul Airport, instead connecting between Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East on itineraries where Turkish Airlines competes directly with Gulf carriers and European network airlines. The breadth of its network and relatively liberal transfer policies help sustain the large volumes that now put it well ahead of British Airways in passenger counts.

Looking ahead, analysts note that Turkish Airlines’ growth trajectory is not without risks. The airline remains exposed to geopolitical tensions in its wider region, currency volatility and competition from both Gulf superconnectors and rapidly expanding carriers in Asia. British Airways faces its own challenges, including capacity constraints at Heathrow, evolving environmental policies in Europe and competition from low cost and long haul rivals.

Even with those uncertainties, current data suggests that the structural factors underpinning Turkish Airlines’ scale advantage over British Airways are unlikely to disappear in the near term. Istanbul’s geography, the carrier’s broad network strategy and its relative cost position have combined to produce a passenger base that is now roughly double that of the UK flag carrier, illustrating how the centre of gravity in global aviation continues to shift.