Why the Year of Rail Must Deliver Real Modal Shift

Follow us on Google

European policymakers and rail industry groups are increasingly warning that celebrating a "Year of Rail" will mean little for the climate unless it triggers a measurable shift of passengers and freight away from roads and planes and onto tracks.

Rail’s climate advantage is clear, but market share is not

Publicly available data from European institutions consistently highlight rail as one of the cleanest transport modes. Rail accounts for a fraction of the transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions, even though it carries significant volumes of passengers and freight. At the same time, the wider transport system remains dominated by road vehicles and, for longer trips, aviation, both of which contribute disproportionately to the sector’s climate impact.

Under the European Green Deal and the associated climate legislation, the European Union has committed to cut economy-wide emissions sharply by 2030 and to reach climate neutrality by 2050. Transport is expected to deliver a 90 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared with 1990 levels, a goal that cannot be achieved without a substantial rebalancing of how people and goods move across the continent.

Recent mobility statistics show that this rebalancing is still in its infancy. Passenger rail has reached record volumes in some markets, and energy used in rail is increasingly electrified, but the overall modal share of rail in passenger and freight transport remains in the single digits. Road haulage and private cars continue to dominate, while air travel has rebounded strongly after the pandemic.

These trends underpin growing concern among analysts and campaign groups that symbolic initiatives such as a designated Year of Rail are not, by themselves, delivering the systemic modal shift implied in Europe’s climate scenarios.

From symbolic campaigns to binding modal shift targets

The designation of 2021 as the European Year of Rail was framed as a way to showcase rail’s role in the Green Deal and to promote trains as a sustainable, innovative mode of transport. Since then, rail advocacy campaigns have multiplied, from international “more trains” messaging to consumer-focused pushes for night trains and cross-border high-speed services.

However, recent evaluations of EU transport strategies indicate that progress on shifting demand has been uneven. While some countries have expanded high-speed rail networks and relaunched overnight services, others are struggling with ageing infrastructure, bottlenecks around major cities and persistent reliability issues that make rail less attractive than road for time-sensitive freight and business travel.

Policy documents linked to the sustainable and smart mobility strategy highlight a series of modal shift ambitions, such as moving a substantial share of long-distance freight from road to rail and inland waterways by 2030 and increasing rail freight volumes by 2050. Yet these aims are largely indicative rather than binding, and they compete with strong economic incentives that currently favour trucks and, on many routes, low-cost flights.

Researchers reviewing public policy instruments for modal shift note that subsidy schemes, state-aid frameworks and regulatory reforms have helped specific segments of rail freight, but have not fundamentally altered the balance across the transport system. That assessment has reinforced calls for any new Year of Rail initiatives to be tied to concrete, enforceable targets and financial measures that reward shippers and travellers for choosing rail over more carbon-intensive modes.

Freight trends reveal risk of reverse modal shift

The freight sector offers a particularly stark picture of the challenge. Eurostat figures for the latest reporting period show that maritime and road transport together account for more than 90 percent of total freight activity in the European Union, with rail carrying only a small share of goods by tonne-kilometres. Recent statistics indicate that rail’s freight share has even edged down slightly in some years.

Industry reports on combined transport underline this concern. Data for the first quarter of 2024 show that volumes in European combined road-rail services continued to decline compared with the previous year, albeit at a slower rate than earlier in the downturn. Analysts describe this as evidence of a “reverse modal shift,” where rising energy costs, disrupted supply chains and capacity constraints are pushing cargo back onto roads.

At the same time, policymakers have advanced new initiatives under the so-called greening freight package, including a proposed regulation on rail capacity management designed to use existing tracks more efficiently and to prioritise environmentally preferable services. Council documents outlining the package stress the need to modernise how train paths are allocated, particularly on congested cross-border corridors that are critical for freight.

Experts argue that unless these measures quickly translate into easier access, more reliable timetables and competitive pricing for rail freight, the sector risks losing further ground. For the Year of Rail concept to be meaningful, they say, freight indicators will need to show not just stabilisation but sustained growth in modal share over the rest of the decade.

Passenger rail records growth but faces stiff competition

On the passenger side, recent figures from Europe’s statistical agency show that cars still account for a large majority of inland travel, with buses and coaches, rail and aviation sharing the remainder. Passenger rail’s modal share has crept upward, and rail passenger-kilometres reached a new high in 2023, but this growth comes alongside a strong rebound in air travel.

New and expanded high-speed lines, along with additional night-train connections linking major cities, are drawing attention to rail’s potential as a viable alternative to short-haul flights. Some national governments have introduced measures to restrict or discourage flights on routes where a competitive rail option exists, while offering discounted fares or travel passes on trains.

Nevertheless, the competitive landscape remains challenging. Low-cost airlines continue to offer very low fares on many intra-European routes, and fragmented ticketing, inconsistent service standards and capacity bottlenecks still discourage some travellers from choosing rail for cross-border journeys. In several countries, concerns about high rail fares and ageing rolling stock further complicate efforts to entice drivers out of their cars.

Analysts note that without decisive policy changes, such as carbon-based pricing on aviation and road fuels, more generous support for public transport operations and streamlined cross-border ticketing, the incremental gains seen in passenger rail use may not translate into the large-scale modal shift envisioned in climate plans.

Policy levers that could make a Year of Rail count

Recent policy discussions around state aid, infrastructure funding and emissions accounting suggest that governments and EU institutions have several levers at their disposal to foster a genuine shift to rail. Updates to railway state-aid guidelines highlight the role of targeted support for shifting freight from road to rail, within a broader framework that seeks to ensure fair competition while prioritising low-carbon modes.

New rules on how transport emissions are measured and reported are intended to make climate impacts more visible for both policymakers and market participants. By providing standardised data on greenhouse gas performance across different modes and services, these frameworks can support procurement decisions that favour lower-emission options, including rail.

Infrastructure policy is another pillar. Revisions to regulations governing the trans-European transport network seek to close missing links, expand cross-border high-speed rail and upgrade freight corridors. Researchers emphasise that dense, reliable and interoperable rail infrastructure is a prerequisite for attracting both passengers and shippers, especially when combined with modern digital signalling and capacity management systems.

For advocates of a stronger Year of Rail agenda, the message is that promotional campaigns and commemorative branding must be paired with these structural measures. Only if pricing, infrastructure and regulatory frameworks systematically reward low-carbon choices will rail be able to capture a significantly larger share of Europe’s mobility market and help deliver on long-term climate commitments.