Hong Kong Tourism Boom Meets Slump in Visitor Spending

Hong Kong’s long-awaited tourism revival is reaching a critical juncture, as surging visitor arrivals increasingly collide with weaker per-capita spending, shorter stays and intensifying competition from rival destinations in mainland China and across Asia.

Record Arrivals Signal a Powerful Rebound

After more than three years of pandemic restrictions, Hong Kong has rapidly rebuilt its visitor base. Data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board and government statistics show that monthly arrivals have climbed back into the multi-million range, with peak months approaching or surpassing levels seen before 2019. Mainland Chinese visitors continue to dominate the flow, accounting for the majority of arrivals and driving headline growth.

During major travel periods such as Lunar New Year and the Labour Day “golden week” in 2024, cross-border demand rebounded strongly, with millions of travellers streaming through key checkpoints and the airport. Reports indicate that some individual months in late 2024 and early 2025 saw visitor numbers rival pre-pandemic figures, underscoring Hong Kong’s enduring draw as a shopping, dining and entertainment hub for the region.

Retail figures have reacted accordingly at the top line. Government data for late 2024 showed year-on-year increases in the value of retail sales, with analysts and local media coverage linking much of the improvement to tourism-driven categories such as jewellery, cosmetics and department stores. Industry reports describe a city once again crowded with overseas package tours, regional business visitors and leisure travellers drawn by new events and attractions.

Yet beneath the surface of those headline arrivals and retail totals, a more complicated picture is emerging, one that is increasingly defined by how much each visitor spends rather than how many cross the border.

Per-Capita Spending Slides as Tourists Tighten Budgets

Publicly available figures and market research indicate that visitor spending per person has fallen sharply from pre-pandemic highs. Analysis referenced in commercial property and tourism advisory reports suggests that total visitor expenditure in 2024 remained well below 2018 and 2019 levels, even as arrivals surged, implying a substantial decline in average spending per trip.

Industry surveys point to a particular drop among mainland Chinese visitors, historically the city’s highest-spending group. Departing visitor surveys and official datasets on per-capita spending show that mainland travellers now spend significantly less per night than visitors from other regions, a reversal of the pattern that once underpinned Hong Kong’s reputation as a luxury shopping capital.

Several forces appear to be weighing on wallets. Analysts note that a softer mainland Chinese economy and weaker consumer confidence have pushed many travellers into budget mode. At the same time, Hong Kong’s currency peg to the US dollar keeps the Hong Kong dollar relatively strong compared with neighbouring markets, making hotel stays, dining and big-ticket shopping feel expensive next to cities in mainland China or Southeast Asia.

Consultancy research cited in regional business media estimates that visitor spending in Hong Kong fell by nearly one-fifth over the last year, while the average length of stay shrank to just over three days. That combination of lower daily outlay and shorter visits is eroding the tourism sector’s contribution to retail and services, even as headline arrival numbers look impressive.

The Rise of Day-Trippers and “Poor Tours”

One of the clearest signs of Hong Kong’s shifting tourism dynamics is the surge in same-day visitors from mainland China. Reporting by local and international outlets highlights the growing popularity of social media itineraries that promise to “do Hong Kong in a day” on minimal budgets, often spending as little as a few hundred yuan by focusing on free viewpoints, inexpensive street food and fast cross-border transport.

Many travellers now book cheaper accommodation in neighbouring Shenzhen and commute across the border for sightseeing, shopping for selected items or attending evening events before returning overnight. Observations shared in local coverage and online forums describe crowds at key border rail stations late at night, with visitors waiting for early-morning trains back to the mainland after fireworks or harborfront shows.

This new pattern contrasts sharply with the big-spending, multi-night stays that once filled central hotels and luxury malls. The “tourist special forces” style of travel, popularised on mainland social media, encourages maximum photo-taking and minimal spending. While these visitors still contribute through transport and basic consumption, their economic footprint per head is far smaller than the luxury-focused shopping tours that drove Hong Kong’s pre-2020 tourism model.

Retailers and hoteliers are feeling the shift most acutely. Commentary in earnings reports and market outlooks for 2024 and 2025 describes a challenging environment for high-end jewellery, watch and fashion retailers that previously catered to big-ticket mainland shoppers. Some operators report softer same-store sales and a greater reliance on promotions and discounts to attract cautious consumers.

Retail Sales Growth Masks Uneven Recovery

Despite these headwinds, headline retail numbers still point to a rebound, though one that remains uneven and vulnerable. Government releases covering late 2024 showed mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in headline retail sales, with gains concentrated in visitor-sensitive categories alongside more modest performance in everyday goods.

Analysts quoted in regional business publications argue that this recovery is fragile. When adjusted for inflation and benchmarked against 2018 and 2019, total retail sales are still below pre-pandemic peaks. Structural shifts, such as the expansion of duty-free zones and high-end shopping districts in mainland cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai, further erode Hong Kong’s comparative advantage as a shopping destination.

At the same time, outbound travel by Hong Kong residents has bounced back quickly, diverting a share of local spending to overseas markets. Research from economic think tanks and the Economist Intelligence Unit notes that a strong Hong Kong dollar encourages residents to spend in Japan, Europe and Southeast Asia, even as the city works to lure more international visitors back.

Commercial landlords and mall operators are therefore caught between rising footfall and softer transaction values. Some are repositioning properties beyond luxury retail toward lifestyle, dining, entertainment and community uses intended to appeal to both residents and tourists, in an effort to stabilise income against more volatile big-ticket spending.

Policy Pivots and the Search for a New Tourism Model

The shifting balance between record arrivals and weaker spending is prompting a broader rethink of Hong Kong’s tourism strategy. Promotional campaigns in 2024 and 2025 have increasingly emphasised culture, outdoors experiences and mega-events, from arts festivals and waterfront shows to international sports tournaments, aiming to lengthen stays and diversify visitor profiles.

Public statements and policy documents highlight plans to develop new nightlife zones, strengthen links between urban areas and outlying islands, and support themed events that can attract repeat visitors. The goal, as reflected in tourism board and government messaging, is to move away from a narrow focus on shopping toward a more rounded experience that can justify higher daily spending.

However, the gap between strategy and behaviour remains significant. Budget-minded travellers are proving highly responsive to price signals and online trends, while competing cities across the region continue to roll out their own incentives and attractions. For Hong Kong, the turning point in its tourism comeback may hinge less on how many visitors return than on whether the city can persuade them to stay longer, explore more widely and once again open their wallets.